Weekly Forex Review (02/06/2023-02/10/2023)
The tenge continued to strengthen, and the exchange rate closed at 450.8 tenge per dollar last year. The Dollar Index rose after statements by the US Federal Reserve Chairman about the expectation of a significant decrease in inflation this year. And the rhetoric of tightening the monetary policy remains at the same time.
The price of Brent crude oil rose by 8.7% and closed at $ 86.4 per barrel on Friday. The reason was the statement of the Deputy Prime Minister of the Russian Federation Alexander Novak on plans to reduce oil production by 500 thousand barrels per day. Also, an additional and significant reason was the suspension of Turkey’s largest oil port due to the earthquake, through which oil from Azerbaijan and Iraq is transported.
Keeping the base rate of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation and the “”hawkish”” signal of a possible monetary policy tightening had a short-term effect. The new budget rule on the sale of foreign currency also failed in the positive effect of the ruble exchange rate.
In total, the external background has had a positive impact on the tenge exchange rate in most cases. We also note the dominance of demand for tenge instruments and an increased supply of currency in the market. The start of the tax week will positively affect the dynamics of the tenge exchange rate, but it will have a temporary effect.
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