Research

Experts of the World Economic Forum (WEF) presented new forecasts for business, professions and skills development in the next 5 years. The study is based on surveys of the largest employers and their expectations regarding business development, professions and skills. The survey involved 803 companies employing more than 11.3 million people, covering 27 industry clusters and 45 economies worldwide.

Key insights:

• Employers expect structural changes in 23% of jobs;
• The "green" economy is the main source of new jobs;
• Economic challenges are the greatest threat to the labour market;
• Advanced technologies will remain a key driver in business transformation;
• About 75% of the surveyed companies plan to implement AI by 2027;
• Up to 43% of all business tasks will be performed by machines in the coming 5 years;
• The most popular profession is artificial intelligence and machine learning specialists;
• Analytical thinking is a key skill for a successful career;
• 47% of the surveyed employers evaluate their skills when selecting candidates, and 45% require a diploma;
• In the next five years, 44% of the basic skills of employees will become obsolete and 6 out of 10 employees will have to undergo training.

We face a variety of expenses that vary depending on our needs, circumstances and preferences in our daily lives. Some people need quality food, others need to repay loans regularly and for some entertainment and recreation become a priority. However, the question often arises: Do we have enough income to meet all these needs? What amount of money is needed to achieve a comfortable standard of living? Is it possible to classify yourself as middle class by your expenses? 

In this regard, we decided to analyze the core expenditures that each person or family needs to achieve a minimum level of comfort and meet basic life needs. As a result of the study, we divided the employees of Astana and Almaty cities into 6 groups depending on their income and expenses and also determined the size of each class: the least well-off, low-income, lower middle class, middle class, prosperous and well-off. 

Key insights:

• An average of 246.3 thousand tenge or 60% of salary is spent on core expenditures every month.
• The largest amount of daily expenses is observed in the first 4 days after receiving a wage.
• At least 450 thousand tenge per month is required to satisfy all basic needs for a comfortable life in megapolicies.
• Almost half of the employed in Astana and Almaty cities (49%) do not have enough earnings to cover their daily expenses.
• The is an essential disparity between workers and cities - there are 4 times more workers with financial difficulties in Almaty than in the capital.
• Only 4.4% of employees with wages from 700 thousand to 1.2 million tenge, whose daily expenses account for 40-50% of income, can be attributed to the middle class.
• Employees with above-average incomes make up the smallest share of the employed population - 2%. 

Our research is devoted to the analysis of the global food service industry and the two largest cities of Kazakhstan - Almaty and Astana. The work includes a variety of businesses, such as restaurants and cafes, bars, fast food restaurants, as well as food delivery. 

The global food service industry will continue its development, relying on the food delivery expansion, the development of technologies in the food industry, the digitalization of processes and the active introduction of innovative approaches.

Kazakhstan's food service industry is also at the stage of rapid growth, and the most popular segment is full-service restaurants. The analysis of the domestic market was carried out on the basis of our up-to-date data containing information on the amount, number and frequency of customer transactions. 

And we determined that high competition causes low business survival - almost a third of restaurants in two major cities of Kazakhstan cannot stay on the market even for a year. 

The average bill of catering places varies throughout the year due to many factors, such as seasonality, holidays, economic situation, etc. The average bill and visit frequency at public catering places also depend on the age of visitors. People over 35 visit are willing to spend more money although visit restaurants less often, whereas young people under 35 visit restaurants more often, but their average bill is much lower.

The results of the study can be useful for developing an industry development strategy and making decisions for a new or existing business.

According to RMCI dynamics, there is a further monetary ridigity strengthening in May 2023. The Index components have an undirectional effect on prices, while the main contribution to the monetary conditions tightening is made by the exchange rate component. And both RMCI Index components began to deviate more strongly from their equilibrium value following May 2023 results.

Despite the increasing transition of the real interest rate to the zone of positive values, provided by the weakening of price pressure while maintaining the NBK base rate at 16.75%, it has a weak deterrent effect on household consumption behaviour. 

Firstly, the household decisions to save or spend come from their inflation expectations, which by the end of May 2023 were higher than the actual dynamics of price growth (17 vs. 15.9) and reflect the intuitive expectations of economic agents of further inflation growth due to the influence of price conjuncture in the housing and fuel markets. Secondly, the availability of consumer credit, as well as active fiscal leverage increases incentives to keep consumer demand excessive, which continues to create an imbalance in market forces.

The continued expansion of the positive gap in the real effective exchange rate of tenge that was provided by a high base rate leads to an increase in the restraining effect of monetary conditions on the import component of prices. Thus, the main influence of monetary conditions is mostly expressed in the control of the external component of consumer inflation. While measures aimed at limiting domestic price pressure do not work due to the inconsistency of macroeconomic policy measures and the weakness of the percentage channel of the monetary policy transmission mechanism.  
 

According to the data for the first half of the year, the economy grew by 5%, while the short-term economy indicator - by 5.6%. The widening of the difference between the short-term economic indicator and GDP data occurred as a result of the economic downturn in professional activity fields, real estate transactions and public administration and defence. Cyclical industries continue to be the main economic drivers, growing by double-digit values due to the increased government spending, growing consumer activity and the implementation of infrastructure modernization plans. We expect these industries to continue to maintain high growth rates. 

The industrial sector also has an additional positive impact on the economy. Thus, the mining industry grew by 15.4% compared to June last year as a result of the base effect. Considering that last year the problems at CPC and Kashagan continued until November, we should expect the development of this industry at high levels by the end of the year.

Thus, the previously observed trends persist and the economy continues to be in the overheating zone. 

Given the above, we expect the economy to maintain high growth rates in the range of 4.7-5.0% next month, followed by a slight decline to 4.5-4.8% at the end of the year. This will also be affected by improving business conditions, good demand for goods and services from the population, a boom in the construction industry and a stable situation in foreign markets.

However, there are still risks from the deterioration of the geopolitical situation, falling oil prices due to insufficient demand and accelerated price growth within the country.

We expect annual economic growth at the level of 3.9-4.2% from 2024. One of the main engines of such growth will be the hydrocarbon sector due to the expansion of oil fields and an increase in oil production, alternative routes in supply chains, as well as the introduction of new production facilities as part of the national development plan implementations.

Kazakhstan has a vast territory with great natural diversity, all of which can have a high tourist attraction. However, only the beauty of nature does not guarantee a high demand from inbound tourism.

According to the Travel & Tourism Development Index 2021, which is published by the World Economic Forum, Kazakhstan ranks 66th out of 117 countries included in the rating. The weakest point for Kazakhstan, the compilers of the rating noted the points on the infrastructure of air transport and cultural and entertainment infrastructure.

The analysis of tourism in Kazakhstan was carried out based on official data of the Bureau of National Statistics andJusan big data on the expenses of our clients. The sample included returnable groups from 20 to 70 years old with different income levels.

So, according to our analysis, the main travellers are young people aged 31-35 and 26-30 years. More than 90% of the population belonging to these age groups have made trips from their native region (across Kazakhstan or abroad) at least once a year for two days or more. The ratio of outbound and domestic tourism is approximately 40% and 60%, respectively.

A group with an income level of up to 200 thousand tenge per month accounts for 60% of the tourist flow in Kazakhstan. Citizens who have a salary of more than 1 million tenge per month also travel actively. Almost 80% of the people included in this group travel. Tourists with a salary of up to 400 thousand tenge, of any age category, in 70% of cases choose to travel around Kazakhstan. Outbound tourism is most popular among the age group of 26-40 years, who have a salary of 500 thousand tenge per month.

The average check in most age groups for outbound tourism exceeds 100 thousand tenge per day, and for domestic tourism 10-15 thousand tenge per day. The average duration of a trip abroad is 7-9 days. The most popular are trips within the country is 2 days (weekend tour).

The key purpose of the domestic tourism trip is to visit friends and relatives. The most visited Kazakhstan regions by domestic tourists are Almaty and Akmola regions, Almaty and Astana cities. Domestic tourists, when travelling, mainly use rail transport and their cars. These types of transport account for more than 60% of the tourist flow.

The average daily check for all age categories amounted to 18 thousand tenge in Almaty and 12 thousand tenge in Astana. The largest share in the average check falls on hotels – 42%. Catering organizations and stores account for about 16% of expenses. A significant part of domestic tourists visit Almaty and Astana cities by their cars, as evidenced by the high share of fuel station expenses in the average check (10%).

Most of the Kazakhstan tourists travelled to nearby countries – Russia, Kyrgyzstan and Uzbekistan. These countries accounted for 70%-90% of the total outbound tourist flow in various years. From non-CIS countries, the "resort countries" Turkey, the UAE and Egypt are in the greatest demand among our tourists.

In the "resort countries", our tourists have the largest expenses in the "hotels" category (they include all expenses that pass through payment terminals installed in hotels) - 65% of the average daily check. Shopping accounts for 18%. It is noteworthy that taxi and fuel station expenses are the same amount – 4% of the average daily receipt. In Turkey, our tourists spend more on fuel stations than on taxis, whereas in the UAE, taxi spending prevails over fuel stations. Therefore, we can assume that renting cars in Turkey is more popular, and in the UAE using taxi services. It is noteworthy, but the largest expenses on fuel stations in Turkey belong to tourists with an income level of 300-700 thousand tenge per month. Tourists with an income of more than 1 million tenge per month actively use both taxi services and rental cars.

In the UAE, the categories of tourists with a monthly income of 200-400 thousand tenge per month and those with an income of more than 1 million tenge per month have the largest expenses on taxis. Other tourists are less active in personal travels.

More than 85% of tourists coming to Kazakhstan are citizens of three countries – Russia, Uzbekistan and Kyrgyzstan. About 80% come for private purposes, which can be considered business tourism. And about 1% of foreign citizens entering the country indicate tourism as the purpose of their trip.