Weekly Forex Review (02/13/2023-02/17/2023)

The tenge strengthened against all major currencies last week. The tax week positively impacted the exchange rate, but the external background was negative.

The Dollar Index strengthened to 103.86 points due to hawkish comments by the US Federal Reserve representatives about the intention to raise the rate by 50 bps. An additional factor was pro-inflationary statistics. The US Producer Price Index rose above analysts’ forecasts: 0.7% vs. 0.3%.

The oil price quotes were also affected by the comments of the US Federal Reserve representatives – they declined due to expectations for tightening monetary policy and the dollar strengthening. An additional factor in the decline was the statistics of the US Department of Energy on oil reserves, which were higher than experts’ forecasts.

The ruble to the US dollar exchange rate increased by 0.5% over the week. The ruble correction was due to the statements of the Minister of Finance of the Russian Federation that the main parameters of the federal budget in 2023 expecting a deficit of 2% of GDP, will be maintained. The Head of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation also stated that they do not rule out a more active tightening of the monetary policy.

The tax week will have a temporary effect, and in all likelihood that we will see a correction in the exchange rate by the end of the week. And it will be also contributed by an adopted on February 24 next planned decision of the NBK on the base rate.