Weekly Forex Review (02/27/2023-03/03/2023)

The end of February and the beginning of March were marked for the tenge strengthening mainly due to internal factors. Exporters sold $ 295 million of revenue, and transfers to the budget from the National Fund amounted to about $ 590 million last week. At the same time, the external background was also favourable for the national currency.

The Dollar Index decreased by 0.6 percentage points and closed at 104.53 points for the week. The Index rose to 105.03 points during the week due to the statements by the President of the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, Rafael Bostic. Moreover, the representative of the Federal Reserve Bank stated the need to raise the base rate and keep it at the level of 5-5.25% until the end of the year.

The oil price also had a positive effect on the tenge exchange rate. The price of oil rose to $ 85.8 per barrel for the week. The main factor was the recovery of demand for energy resources from China after the abolition of coronavirus restrictions. At the same time, the oil price fell sharply this week after Bloomberg’s statements about the possible withdrawal of the UAE from OPEC. However, prices resumed their growth after the rumours were denied.

The ruble exchange rate continues to weaken amid a reduction in Russian oil exports. Sanctions from the G7 countries affected the reduction of sea exports by 25%.

We expect further strengthening of the tenge by the plans to sell the currency in the amount of 750-850 million dollars for transfers from the National Fund. However, the Unified Accumulative Pension Fund is going to buy a currency in the amount of $ 200-250 million in March to maintain the currency share, which is more likely to affect the support of the currency.