Forecasts of main International Financial Institutions

Jusan Analytics team calculated the Export Price Index for the main goods of Kazakhstan (XPI JA)

The Export Price Index includes key export goods of Kazakhstan, which are sold at the prices of international commodity exchanges: crude oil, natural gas, copper, uranium, wheat, zinc, silver, and aluminum. The Index is calculated as a geometric weighted average of the prices of 8 goods, considering their share in total exports and a scaling factor. The base value of the Index is 100 at December 2018 prices.

The Export Price Index reflects the change in world quotations of the main commodity groups of Kazakhstan’s exports in the current period in comparison with the baseline. With the help of the Index, it is possible to trace the influence of commodity market conditions on the general terms of trade of the country and, to a certain extent, assess the dynamics of export earnings as a result of changes in world prices (excluding physical export volumes).

Given the high commodity concentration of Kazakhstan’s exports, the Export Price Index excluding crude oil was additionally calculated for analytical purposes. The Index helps to assess the price dynamics of other goods that occupy a less significant share in exports. At the same time, foreign exchange earnings from their sale may affect the volume of foreign currency supply in Kazakhstan.

We note that the Index excluding crude oil is less volatile. This is due to its structure being evenly diversified, which reduces the impact of one product on the entire basket.

Power coefficients reflect the currency structure of the Export Price Index:

The chosen distribution of shares for the Export Price Index reflects the average structure of the export basket of Kazakhstan for the main goods. A sample set of goods is formed at the level of the FEACN 4 signs and based on the dependence of the export price on stock exchange quotations.

Interactive chart related to the dynamics of Export Price Index is shown below. We recommend you using the desktop version of the browser or switching to the “PC Version” from the mobile version for comfortable reading. The setting can be found in the mobile browser menu – three dots in the right corner.

Jusan Analytics team calculated the Tenge Index (KZTX JA)

The Index is calculated as the geometric weighted average of tenge exchange rates against foreign currencies (dollar, ruble, euro) multiplied by a scaling factor that brings the Index value to 100 on the base date of the index calculation (December 2018). We do not consider the earlier period, as we believe that from 2016 to 2018, exchange rate formation has adapted to new conditions – the floating exchange rate regime.

KZTX JA = 13 481,2*KZTUSD^0.65*KZTRUB^0.25*KZTEUR^0.1

The formed Index reflects the purchasing power of tenge to the main foreign currencies used in trade and transfers. Thus, with the help of the Index, it is possible to judge the tenge strength, and not only concerning a specific currency. Accordingly, the growth of the tenge Index means the strengthening of the tenge against the major currencies, while the decline means the loss of the purchasing power of the domestic currency.

Coefficients reflect the currency structure of the Tenge Index:

• US dollar – 65%;
• Russian ruble – 25%;
• Euro – 10%.

The selected distribution of shares for the Tenge Index reflects the average currency structure:

• Kazakhstan’s trade turnover with the main trading partners,
• currency payments and transfers,
• currency transactions on the exchanging currency market and the cash foreign exchange market.

Even though there is a significant share between China and the European Union in trade, the main currency of payments in trade transactions is the US dollar. The currency structure will be reviewed by us no more than once every 2-3 years.

The Tenge Index can be used to analyze the behavior of the national currency to individual currency pairs and to understand what its dynamics is related: to the tenge strengthening itself or the weakening of a single foreign currency.

A detailed overview of the dynamics of the Tenge Index (KZTX JA), explanation and impact will be published within the Weekly Forex Review.

Interactive dashboards related to the dynamics of the Tenge Index are shown below. We recommend you using the desktop version of the browser or switching to the “PC Version” from the mobile version for comfortable reading. The setting can be found in the mobile browser menu – three dots in the right corner.

The Index allows you to assess the level of personal inflation and purchasing power of residents of Astana and Almaty cities

Below are interactive dashboards related to the dynamics of the Dastarkhan Index, developed and calculated by Jusan Analytics team. We recommend you using the desktop version of the browser or switch to the “PC Version” from the mobile version for comfortable reading. The setting can be found in the mobile browser menu – three dots in the right corner.

Charts show the dynamics of the Index for Astana and Almaty cities. The calculation methodology is described on «Jusan Analytics team has updated the Dastarkhan Index» page.

* value to weight ratio of products

Comparison of prices for products, tenge

Jusan Analytics team developed and launched the Dastarkhan Index in May 2022 to show every Kazakhstan citizen how their Purchasing Power changes in response to changes in food prices.

The difference between our Dastarkhan Index and other Consumer Purchasing Power estimates are:

• Responsiveness – statistics on food prices are from Jusan big-data (retail prices of major retailers), which change in real-time. The Index is updated monthly;
• Relevance – we used the common set of food products of Almaty citizens and residents of the capital;
• Uniqueness – we combined the products into a set of dishes that often lay out a table of every Kazakhstan family. The Index is calculated for 1 person.

Previously, we used official statistical information on the average wage as data on household income. Given its quarterly update frequency, this could lead to Index data distortion. Therefore, we have decided to revise the calculation methodology and use monthly statistics on the wages of Kazakhstan citizens received on Jusan cards as data on household income.

Methodology:

1. The Dastarkhan Index is calculated based on data for Almaty and Astana cities.
2. A set of food products is used to build a basket of goods, which s combined into 5 favourite dishes of Kazakhstan citizens:

• Sorpa (first course);
• Besbarmak (second course);
• Vegetable salad;
• Bauyrsak;
• Zhent (dessert);
• Tea with milk (drink).

The food basket is determined based on the list and ratio of products for preparation of the Dastarkhan Index dishes (see below), which were approved by Tarih restaurant of Kazakh signature cuisine.

Ingredients and the weight of the products are shown in the table:

Next, Jusan Analytics team calculates the cost of the food basket:

• Amount of product in a dish = Ingredient * its weight
• Cost of product in a dish = Quantity of product in the dish * price
• Cost of a dish = sum of the cost of products in the dish
• Cost of the Dastarkhan Index set of dishes = sum of the cost of 5 dishes

And then we calculate the Dastarkhan Index by the following formula: