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Jusan Analytics team calculated the Export Price Index for the main goods of Kazakhstan (XPI JA)

The Export Price Index includes key export goods of Kazakhstan, which are sold at the prices of international commodity exchanges: crude oil, natural gas, copper, uranium, wheat, zinc, silver, and aluminum. The Index is calculated as a geometric weighted average of the prices of 8 goods, considering their share in total exports and a scaling factor. The base value of the Index is 100 at December 2018 prices.

The Export Price Index reflects the change in world quotations of the main commodity groups of Kazakhstan’s exports in the current period in comparison with the baseline. With the help of the Index, it is possible to trace the influence of commodity market conditions on the general terms of trade of the country and, to a certain extent, assess the dynamics of export earnings as a result of changes in world prices (excluding physical export volumes).

Given the high commodity concentration of Kazakhstan’s exports, the Export Price Index excluding crude oil was additionally calculated for analytical purposes. The Index helps to assess the price dynamics of other goods that occupy a less significant share in exports. At the same time, foreign exchange earnings from their sale may affect the volume of foreign currency supply in Kazakhstan.

We note that the Index excluding crude oil is less volatile. This is due to its structure being evenly diversified, which reduces the impact of one product on the entire basket.

Power coefficients reflect the currency structure of the Export Price Index:

Product name	Code	XPI JA(LCO=78)	XPI JA2(LCO=0)
Oil	LCO	78.03%	0.00%
Gas	NG	6.08%	27.69%
Copper	HG	5.59%	25.46%
Uranium	UXX	4.15%	18.90%
Wheat	LWB	2.25%	10.23%
Zinc	MZN	1.47%	6.70%
Silver	SIZ	1.28%	5.83%
Aluminum	MAL	1.14%	5.19%

 

The chosen distribution of shares for the Export Price Index reflects the average structure of the export basket of Kazakhstan for the main goods. A sample set of goods is formed at the level of the FEACN 4 signs and based on the dependence of the export price on stock exchange quotations.

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Interactive chart related to the dynamics of Export Price Index is shown below. We recommend you using the desktop version of the browser or switching to the “PC Version” from the mobile version for comfortable reading. The setting can be found in the mobile browser menu – three dots in the right corner.