September 28, 2022
InflationPrice barometer (August 2022)
Main conclusions
- Mutual sanctions leading to deglobalization and China’s zero-tolerance policy toward COVID-19 have caused disruptions in global supply and production chains, and all of these contribute to the cost increase of production factors;
- As a result of geopolitical instability, the change in the supply and demand balance for energy sources contributes to the preservation of high prices for them. At the same time, the hike is reflected in the pricing of final goods and services;
- The level of global inflation is still and expected to remain in the medium term unfavourably high;
- The internal pro-inflationary background is growing due to pessimistic inflation expectations and the continued consumer demand growth. The latter is provided by budget expenditures and increased activity in consumer lending;
- The main trigger of consumer inflation has shifted: prices for non-food products have begun to overtake the growth rate of food prices. Food inflation is temporarily restrained by the seasonal reduction in the price of fruits and vegetables;
- The growth of non-food inflation is supported by high import dependence, increased inflationary background in trading partner countries and the effect of exchange rate transfer;
- Seasonal shock and imbalances in the markets of certain types of market services, including those associated with the abolition of temporary restrictive measures of the Government, have made a perverse contribution to consumer inflation;
- By regions, annual inflation was in the range of 13.6-19.2%. There was an increase in the diversity of inflationary processes in the regions;
- We expect inflation to rise to 17-17.5% (16-18% according to the updated National Bank of the Republic of Kazakhstan forecast) by the end of the year. The observed strengthening of inflationary processes together with high risks of further acceleration of inflation determine it necessary to take measures to cool consumer demand.
Read more in the paper
Aizhan Alibekova
Senior AnalystSeptember 28, 2022
InflationRelated News
09 October 23
How not to be unemployed: what you need to know about the future labour market
Experts of the World Economic Forum (WEF) presented new forecasts for business, professions and skills development in the next 5 years. The study is based on surveys of the largest employers and their expectations regarding business development, professions and skills. The survey involved 803 companies employing more than 11.3 million people, covering 27 industry clusters and 45 economies worldwide.
Key insights:
- Employers expect structural changes in 23% of jobs;
- The "green" economy is the main source of new jobs;
- Economic challenges are the greatest threat to the labour market;
- Advanced technologies will remain a key driver in business transformation;
- About 75% of the surveyed companies plan to implement AI by 2027;
- Up to 43% of all business tasks will be performed by machines in the coming 5 years;
- The most popular profession is artificial intelligence and machine learning specialists;
- Analytical thinking is a key skill for a successful career;
- 47% of the surveyed employers evaluate their skills when selecting candidates, and 45% require a diploma;
- In the next five years, 44% of the basic skills of employees will become obsolete and 6 out of 10 employees will have to undergo training.
One-off Researches
labour marketBusinessAlexandra Molchanovskaya
06 September 23
Financial analytics: How much do we spend on routine expenditures?
We face a variety of expenses that vary depending on our needs, circumstances and preferences in our daily lives. Some people need quality food, others need to repay loans regularly and for some entertainment and recreation become a priority. However, the question often arises: Do we have enough income to meet all these needs? What amount of money is needed to achieve a comfortable standard of living? Is it possible to classify yourself as middle class by your expenses?
In this regard, we decided to analyze the core expenditures that each person or family needs to achieve a minimum level of comfort and meet basic life needs. As a result of the study, we divided the employees of Astana and Almaty cities into 6 groups depending on their income and expenses and also determined the size of each class: the least well-off, low-income, lower middle class, middle class, prosperous and well-off.
Key insights:
- An average of 246.3 thousand tenge or 60% of salary is spent on core expenditures every month.
- The largest amount of daily expenses is observed in the first 4 days after receiving a wage.
- At least 450 thousand tenge per month is required to satisfy all basic needs for a comfortable life in megapolicies.
- Almost half of the employed in Astana and Almaty cities (49%) do not have enough earnings to cover their daily expenses.
- The is an essential disparity between workers and cities - there are 4 times more workers with financial difficulties in Almaty than in the capital.
- Only 4.4% of employees with wages from 700 thousand to 1.2 million tenge, whose daily expenses account for 40-50% of income, can be attributed to the middle class.
- Employees with above-average incomes make up the smallest share of the employed population - 2%.
One-off Researches
Standard of livingConsumptionAlexandra Molchanovskaya
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