February 20, 2023
InflationPrice barometer (December 2022)
Risks and prospects
- The CPI inflation growth rate in the last month of 2022 surprised us with the uncharacteristic slowdown in consumer price growth rates in December.
- The declining volume of the household’s real incomes probably contributed to a more restrained household consumer demand in December, despite its usual growth on the eve of the preparations for the New Year.
- The observed slowdown in price growth is not a sign of an inflationary cooling yet. The continued acceleration of core inflation indicators and the deterioration of inflation expectations are signals of a long-term trend of higher prices and different rates with directions of prices of consumer goods and services.
- Entered into force on January 1, 2023, new values of the key calculated indicators may give an additional short-term inflationary impulse due to an increase in the household’s nominal income.
- According to our forecasts, inflation in annualized terms will continue to accelerate during the first quarter of 2023. And in the future, prices will slowly decline if there are no additional growth triggers.
- Following the estimates, the current high inflation and the restraining monetary conditions supported by the regulator will reduce the consumer spending plans of all economic agents during the first half of the year.
- We expect a slowdown in price growth in annualized terms to 14.2-16.8% by the end of 2023, which will be mostly explained by the maintenance of monetary conditions close to restraining, the technical effect of the high base of last year, as well as the gradual mitigation of impacts of the excessive demand and lack of supply in the domestic market.
- Potential price spikes for the production, purchase and logistics of goods caused by external factors with new geopolitical threats are still among the key risks and may contribute to maintaining increased rates of price growth in the coming months of 2023.
Read more in the paper
Aizhan Alibekova
Senior AnalystFebruary 20, 2023
InflationRelated News
09 October 23
How not to be unemployed: what you need to know about the future labour market
Experts of the World Economic Forum (WEF) presented new forecasts for business, professions and skills development in the next 5 years. The study is based on surveys of the largest employers and their expectations regarding business development, professions and skills. The survey involved 803 companies employing more than 11.3 million people, covering 27 industry clusters and 45 economies worldwide.
Key insights:
- Employers expect structural changes in 23% of jobs;
- The "green" economy is the main source of new jobs;
- Economic challenges are the greatest threat to the labour market;
- Advanced technologies will remain a key driver in business transformation;
- About 75% of the surveyed companies plan to implement AI by 2027;
- Up to 43% of all business tasks will be performed by machines in the coming 5 years;
- The most popular profession is artificial intelligence and machine learning specialists;
- Analytical thinking is a key skill for a successful career;
- 47% of the surveyed employers evaluate their skills when selecting candidates, and 45% require a diploma;
- In the next five years, 44% of the basic skills of employees will become obsolete and 6 out of 10 employees will have to undergo training.
One-off Researches
Businesslabour marketAlexandra Molchanovskaya
06 September 23
Financial analytics: How much do we spend on routine expenditures?
We face a variety of expenses that vary depending on our needs, circumstances and preferences in our daily lives. Some people need quality food, others need to repay loans regularly and for some entertainment and recreation become a priority. However, the question often arises: Do we have enough income to meet all these needs? What amount of money is needed to achieve a comfortable standard of living? Is it possible to classify yourself as middle class by your expenses?
In this regard, we decided to analyze the core expenditures that each person or family needs to achieve a minimum level of comfort and meet basic life needs. As a result of the study, we divided the employees of Astana and Almaty cities into 6 groups depending on their income and expenses and also determined the size of each class: the least well-off, low-income, lower middle class, middle class, prosperous and well-off.
Key insights:
- An average of 246.3 thousand tenge or 60% of salary is spent on core expenditures every month.
- The largest amount of daily expenses is observed in the first 4 days after receiving a wage.
- At least 450 thousand tenge per month is required to satisfy all basic needs for a comfortable life in megapolicies.
- Almost half of the employed in Astana and Almaty cities (49%) do not have enough earnings to cover their daily expenses.
- The is an essential disparity between workers and cities - there are 4 times more workers with financial difficulties in Almaty than in the capital.
- Only 4.4% of employees with wages from 700 thousand to 1.2 million tenge, whose daily expenses account for 40-50% of income, can be attributed to the middle class.
- Employees with above-average incomes make up the smallest share of the employed population - 2%.
One-off Researches
Standard of livingConsumptionAlexandra Molchanovskaya
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