March 29, 2023
InflationPrice barometer (February 2023)
Risks and prospects
Global inflation remains high, although it has probably already passed its peak in most developed countries. The IMF experts expect that the inflationary environment will improve in 2023, even if core inflation, which does not include more volatile energy and food prices, has not yet peaked in many countries. At the same time, a geopolitical turbulence factor causes risks of a long period of increased inflation.
Following our baseline scenario, the internal inflationary pressure will weaken in 1 year but will remain significantly above the NBK target. This is due to several factors. The long-term maintenance by the regulator of restraining monetary conditions is already showing its effect on weakening consumer demand, slowing price growth and reducing inflation expectations of economic agents. And the increase in wages at the beginning of the year, the indexation of pensions and benefits, and the next fiscal impulse restrain the decline in real incomes as well as all of these complicate the possibilities of managing inflationary risks.
An additional stabilizing contribution is made by the exchange rate dynamics of the tenge, which allows it to restrain the risk-taking of inflation growth through the cost of imported goods and limits the possible increase in the volatility of inflation expectations.
The expansion of fiscal stimulus due to the revision of the transfer volume from the National Fund, which contributes to the consumer demand expansion, has caused a change in our estimates of the prospects for economic growth. Thus, the updated forecasts assume a GDP growth of 4.0-4.5% in 2023 and a 3.1% of the output gap. Inflation will enter a downward trajectory and will be at a 12.4–14.3% level by the end of the year. And monetary conditions as a whole will remain close to neutral.
The observed degree of heterogeneity of the response of inflationary processes in response to monetary policy shocks, unstable inflationary expectations and high pro-inflationary risks determine our expectations for a further smooth reduction of the NBK base rate.
Read more in the paper
Aizhan Alibekova
Senior AnalystMarch 29, 2023
InflationRelated News
09 October 23
How not to be unemployed: what you need to know about the future labour market
Experts of the World Economic Forum (WEF) presented new forecasts for business, professions and skills development in the next 5 years. The study is based on surveys of the largest employers and their expectations regarding business development, professions and skills. The survey involved 803 companies employing more than 11.3 million people, covering 27 industry clusters and 45 economies worldwide.
Key insights:
- Employers expect structural changes in 23% of jobs;
- The "green" economy is the main source of new jobs;
- Economic challenges are the greatest threat to the labour market;
- Advanced technologies will remain a key driver in business transformation;
- About 75% of the surveyed companies plan to implement AI by 2027;
- Up to 43% of all business tasks will be performed by machines in the coming 5 years;
- The most popular profession is artificial intelligence and machine learning specialists;
- Analytical thinking is a key skill for a successful career;
- 47% of the surveyed employers evaluate their skills when selecting candidates, and 45% require a diploma;
- In the next five years, 44% of the basic skills of employees will become obsolete and 6 out of 10 employees will have to undergo training.
One-off Researches
Businesslabour marketAlexandra Molchanovskaya
06 September 23
Financial analytics: How much do we spend on routine expenditures?
We face a variety of expenses that vary depending on our needs, circumstances and preferences in our daily lives. Some people need quality food, others need to repay loans regularly and for some entertainment and recreation become a priority. However, the question often arises: Do we have enough income to meet all these needs? What amount of money is needed to achieve a comfortable standard of living? Is it possible to classify yourself as middle class by your expenses?
In this regard, we decided to analyze the core expenditures that each person or family needs to achieve a minimum level of comfort and meet basic life needs. As a result of the study, we divided the employees of Astana and Almaty cities into 6 groups depending on their income and expenses and also determined the size of each class: the least well-off, low-income, lower middle class, middle class, prosperous and well-off.
Key insights:
- An average of 246.3 thousand tenge or 60% of salary is spent on core expenditures every month.
- The largest amount of daily expenses is observed in the first 4 days after receiving a wage.
- At least 450 thousand tenge per month is required to satisfy all basic needs for a comfortable life in megapolicies.
- Almost half of the employed in Astana and Almaty cities (49%) do not have enough earnings to cover their daily expenses.
- The is an essential disparity between workers and cities - there are 4 times more workers with financial difficulties in Almaty than in the capital.
- Only 4.4% of employees with wages from 700 thousand to 1.2 million tenge, whose daily expenses account for 40-50% of income, can be attributed to the middle class.
- Employees with above-average incomes make up the smallest share of the employed population - 2%.
One-off Researches
Standard of livingConsumptionAlexandra Molchanovskaya
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