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Price barometer (June 2022)

Main conclusions

  • According to official data, annual inflation continued to accelerate in June and amounted to 14.5%. Despite government measures to curb prices, the growth was provided by the appreciation of all CPI components;
  • Inflation expectations of the population became more pessimistic in June. According to the National Bank of the Republic of Kazakhstan, the estimate of inflation expectations for the year ahead was 14.8% (in May – 11.7%);
  • The current situation creates risks for exceeding the Natiinal Bank of the Republic of Kazakhstan forecast range (13.0-15.0%) and maintaining consumer prices at a high level for a longer period of time than it was expected;
  • Despite the observed short-term decline in prices on world markets, external factors are still able to exert additional pro-inflationary pressure;
  • Contrary to expectations due to the impact of seasonal decline in prices for vegetables and fruits, prices for all products in the grocery basket are rising. Sugar and grain prices had a significant impact on the growth of the food basket;
  • Disruptions of global supply chains, weakening of tenge are reflected in the acceleration of price growth of non-food products;
  • The rise in the market  services cost is associated with the growth of consumer demand and the influence of the summer vacation period. The increase related to last year is also due to a number of quarantine restrictions in the summer of 2021;
  • In order to cool the growing inflationary pressure and maintain the investment attractiveness of the national currency, the National Bank of the Republic of Kazakhstan should continue a smooth increase of the base rate;
  • There are some prerequisites for realization of tightening monetary coniditions potential under the current conditions, which the National Bank of the Republic of Kazakhstan has announced in its decision on the base rate at the end of April this year.

Risks and prospects

  • The long-running geopolitical conflict combined with sanctions against Russia, cause problems with supply chains. This in turn leads to an increase in the cost of production and logistics of goods and services;
  • The weakening of the tenge due to the growth of the dollar index against the background of tightening monetary conditions by the leading economies of the world will become a factor in the further appreciation of goods and services included in the CPI basket;
  • Internal inflationary processes, including due to fiscal incentives provided despite the missing signals of a decline/slowdown in economic activity within the country, continue to increase;
  • Despite the current administrative measures to curb price growth, inflation expectations of the population are only getting stronger. People understand that the measures are only temporary;
  • According to the Announcement of the Head of the Committee for Regulation of Natural Monopolies in early July, residents of the country should have expected an increase in electricity tariffs in the range of 10-15% by the end of this year. The increase in utility prices after the expiration of the moratorium will have a direct impact on service inflation and indirectly contribute to the rise in the cost of manufactured goods and services.

In our opinion, there are no obvious prerequisites for weakening the dominant pro-inflationary background in the domestic and foreign markets in the near future. In the current conditions, we are expecting the further acceleration of inflation and its level above the forecast values presented in June 2022 by the National Bank of Kazakhstan. The above factors and risks create prerequisites for realizing the potential for the further tightening of monetary conditions, which the National Bank of the Republic of Kazakhstan has reported in the decision on the base rate at the end of April this year.

Read more in the paper

Aizhan Alibekova

Senior Analyst

09 October 23

303

How not to be unemployed: what you need to know about the future labour market

Experts of the World Economic Forum (WEF) presented new forecasts for business, professions and skills development in the next 5 years. The study is based on surveys of the largest employers and their expectations regarding business development, professions and skills. The survey involved 803 companies employing more than 11.3 million people, covering 27 industry clusters and 45 economies worldwide.

Key insights:

  • Employers expect structural changes in 23% of jobs;
  • The "green" economy is the main source of new jobs;
  • Economic challenges are the greatest threat to the labour market;
  • Advanced technologies will remain a key driver in business transformation;
  • About 75% of the surveyed companies plan to implement AI by 2027;
  • Up to 43% of all business tasks will be performed by machines in the coming 5 years;
  • The most popular profession is artificial intelligence and machine learning specialists;
  • Analytical thinking is a key skill for a successful career;
  • 47% of the surveyed employers evaluate their skills when selecting candidates, and 45% require a diploma;
  • In the next five years, 44% of the basic skills of employees will become obsolete and 6 out of 10 employees will have to undergo training.

One-off Researches


Businesslabour marketAlexandra Molchanovskaya

06 September 23

1551

Financial analytics: How much do we spend on routine expenditures?

We face a variety of expenses that vary depending on our needs, circumstances and preferences in our daily lives. Some people need quality food, others need to repay loans regularly and for some entertainment and recreation become a priority. However, the question often arises: Do we have enough income to meet all these needs? What amount of money is needed to achieve a comfortable standard of living? Is it possible to classify yourself as middle class by your expenses? 

In this regard, we decided to analyze the core expenditures that each person or family needs to achieve a minimum level of comfort and meet basic life needs. As a result of the study, we divided the employees of Astana and Almaty cities into 6 groups depending on their income and expenses and also determined the size of each class: the least well-off, low-income, lower middle class, middle class, prosperous and well-off. 

Key insights:

  • An average of 246.3 thousand tenge or 60% of salary is spent on core expenditures every month.
  • The largest amount of daily expenses is observed in the first 4 days after receiving a wage.
  • At least 450 thousand tenge per month is required to satisfy all basic needs for a comfortable life in megapolicies.
  • Almost half of the employed in Astana and Almaty cities (49%) do not have enough earnings to cover their daily expenses.
  • The is an essential disparity between workers and cities - there are 4 times more workers with financial difficulties in Almaty than in the capital.
  • Only 4.4% of employees with wages from 700 thousand to 1.2 million tenge, whose daily expenses account for 40-50% of income, can be attributed to the middle class.
  • Employees with above-average incomes make up the smallest share of the employed population - 2%. 

One-off Researches


ConsumptionStandard of livingAlexandra Molchanovskaya

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