Voice Assistant

Price barometer (June 2022)

Main conclusions

  • According to official data, annual inflation continued to accelerate in June and amounted to 14.5%. Despite government measures to curb prices, the growth was provided by the appreciation of all CPI components;
  • Inflation expectations of the population became more pessimistic in June. According to the National Bank of the Republic of Kazakhstan, the estimate of inflation expectations for the year ahead was 14.8% (in May – 11.7%);
  • The current situation creates risks for exceeding the Natiinal Bank of the Republic of Kazakhstan forecast range (13.0-15.0%) and maintaining consumer prices at a high level for a longer period of time than it was expected;
  • Despite the observed short-term decline in prices on world markets, external factors are still able to exert additional pro-inflationary pressure;
  • Contrary to expectations due to the impact of seasonal decline in prices for vegetables and fruits, prices for all products in the grocery basket are rising. Sugar and grain prices had a significant impact on the growth of the food basket;
  • Disruptions of global supply chains, weakening of tenge are reflected in the acceleration of price growth of non-food products;
  • The rise in the market  services cost is associated with the growth of consumer demand and the influence of the summer vacation period. The increase related to last year is also due to a number of quarantine restrictions in the summer of 2021;
  • In order to cool the growing inflationary pressure and maintain the investment attractiveness of the national currency, the National Bank of the Republic of Kazakhstan should continue a smooth increase of the base rate;
  • There are some prerequisites for realization of tightening monetary coniditions potential under the current conditions, which the National Bank of the Republic of Kazakhstan has announced in its decision on the base rate at the end of April this year.

Risks and prospects

  • The long-running geopolitical conflict combined with sanctions against Russia, cause problems with supply chains. This in turn leads to an increase in the cost of production and logistics of goods and services;
  • The weakening of the tenge due to the growth of the dollar index against the background of tightening monetary conditions by the leading economies of the world will become a factor in the further appreciation of goods and services included in the CPI basket;
  • Internal inflationary processes, including due to fiscal incentives provided despite the missing signals of a decline/slowdown in economic activity within the country, continue to increase;
  • Despite the current administrative measures to curb price growth, inflation expectations of the population are only getting stronger. People understand that the measures are only temporary;
  • According to the Announcement of the Head of the Committee for Regulation of Natural Monopolies in early July, residents of the country should have expected an increase in electricity tariffs in the range of 10-15% by the end of this year. The increase in utility prices after the expiration of the moratorium will have a direct impact on service inflation and indirectly contribute to the rise in the cost of manufactured goods and services.

In our opinion, there are no obvious prerequisites for weakening the dominant pro-inflationary background in the domestic and foreign markets in the near future. In the current conditions, we are expecting the further acceleration of inflation and its level above the forecast values presented in June 2022 by the National Bank of Kazakhstan. The above factors and risks create prerequisites for realizing the potential for the further tightening of monetary conditions, which the National Bank of the Republic of Kazakhstan has reported in the decision on the base rate at the end of April this year.

Read more in the paper

Aizhan Alibekova

Senior Analyst

06 September 23


Financial analytics: How much do we spend on routine expenditures?

We face a variety of expenses that vary depending on our needs, circumstances and preferences in our daily lives. Some people need quality food, others need to repay loans regularly and for some entertainment and recreation become a priority. However, the question often arises: Do we have enough income to meet all these needs? What amount of money is needed to achieve a comfortable standard of living? Is it possible to classify yourself as middle class by your expenses? 

In this regard, we decided to analyze the core expenditures that each person or family needs to achieve a minimum level of comfort and meet basic life needs. As a result of the study, we divided the employees of Astana and Almaty cities into 6 groups depending on their income and expenses and also determined the size of each class: the least well-off, low-income, lower middle class, middle class, prosperous and well-off. 

Key insights:

  • An average of 246.3 thousand tenge or 60% of salary is spent on core expenditures every month.
  • The largest amount of daily expenses is observed in the first 4 days after receiving a wage.
  • At least 450 thousand tenge per month is required to satisfy all basic needs for a comfortable life in megapolicies.
  • Almost half of the employed in Astana and Almaty cities (49%) do not have enough earnings to cover their daily expenses.
  • The is an essential disparity between workers and cities - there are 4 times more workers with financial difficulties in Almaty than in the capital.
  • Only 4.4% of employees with wages from 700 thousand to 1.2 million tenge, whose daily expenses account for 40-50% of income, can be attributed to the middle class.
  • Employees with above-average incomes make up the smallest share of the employed population - 2%. 

One-off Researches

Standard of livingConsumptionAlexandra Molchanovskaya

24 August 23


Analysis of the food service industry

Our research is devoted to the analysis of the global food service industry and the two largest cities of Kazakhstan - Almaty and Astana. The work includes a variety of businesses, such as restaurants and cafes, bars, fast food restaurants, as well as food delivery. 

The global food service industry will continue its development, relying on the food delivery expansion, the development of technologies in the food industry, the digitalization of processes and the active introduction of innovative approaches.

Kazakhstan's food service industry is also at the stage of rapid growth, and the most popular segment is full-service restaurants. The analysis of the domestic market was carried out on the basis of our up-to-date data containing information on the amount, number and frequency of customer transactions. 

And we determined that high competition causes low business survival - almost a third of restaurants in two major cities of Kazakhstan cannot stay on the market even for a year. 

The average bill of catering places varies throughout the year due to many factors, such as seasonality, holidays, economic situation, etc. The average bill and visit frequency at public catering places also depend on the age of visitors. People over 35 visit are willing to spend more money although visit restaurants less often, whereas young people under 35 visit restaurants more often, but their average bill is much lower.

The results of the study can be useful for developing an industry development strategy and making decisions for a new or existing business.

One-off Researches

BusinessNargiza Makenova

09 August 23


Monetary conditions (May 2023)

According to RMCI dynamics, there is a further monetary ridigity strengthening in May 2023. The Index components have an undirectional effect on prices, while the main contribution to the monetary conditions tightening is made by the exchange rate component. And both RMCI Index components began to deviate more strongly from their equilibrium value following May 2023 results.

Despite the increasing transition of the real interest rate to the zone of positive values, provided by the weakening of price pressure while maintaining the NBK base rate at 16.75%, it has a weak deterrent effect on household consumption behaviour. 

Firstly, the household decisions to save or spend come from their inflation expectations, which by the end of May 2023 were higher than the actual dynamics of price growth (17 vs. 15.9) and reflect the intuitive expectations of economic agents of further inflation growth due to the influence of price conjuncture in the housing and fuel markets. Secondly, the availability of consumer credit, as well as active fiscal leverage increases incentives to keep consumer demand excessive, which continues to create an imbalance in market forces.

The continued expansion of the positive gap in the real effective exchange rate of tenge that was provided by a high base rate leads to an increase in the restraining effect of monetary conditions on the import component of prices. Thus, the main influence of monetary conditions is mostly expressed in the control of the external component of consumer inflation. While measures aimed at limiting domestic price pressure do not work due to the inconsistency of macroeconomic policy measures and the weakness of the percentage channel of the monetary policy transmission mechanism.  

Periodic Researches

ConsumptionInflationBase RateAizhan Alibekova

07 August 23


Leading indicator of economy (6 months of 2023)

According to the data for the first half of the year, the economy grew by 5%, while the short-term economy indicator - by 5.6%. The widening of the difference between the short-term economic indicator and GDP data occurred as a result of the economic downturn in professional activity fields, real estate transactions and public administration and defence. Cyclical industries continue to be the main economic drivers, growing by double-digit values due to the increased government spending, growing consumer activity and the implementation of infrastructure modernization plans. We expect these industries to continue to maintain high growth rates. 

The industrial sector also has an additional positive impact on the economy. Thus, the mining industry grew by 15.4% compared to June last year as a result of the base effect. Considering that last year the problems at CPC and Kashagan continued until November, we should expect the development of this industry at high levels by the end of the year.

Thus, the previously observed trends persist and the economy continues to be in the overheating zone. 

Given the above, we expect the economy to maintain high growth rates in the range of 4.7-5.0% next month, followed by a slight decline to 4.5-4.8% at the end of the year. This will also be affected by improving business conditions, good demand for goods and services from the population, a boom in the construction industry and a stable situation in foreign markets.

However, there are still risks from the deterioration of the geopolitical situation, falling oil prices due to insufficient demand and accelerated price growth within the country.

We expect annual economic growth at the level of 3.9-4.2% from 2024. One of the main engines of such growth will be the hydrocarbon sector due to the expansion of oil fields and an increase in oil production, alternative routes in supply chains, as well as the introduction of new production facilities as part of the national development plan implementations.

BusinessKlara Seidakhmetova

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