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Price barometer (May 2022)

Main conclusions

  • In May an annual inflation accelerated to 14.0%. Growth was observed in all its components, and the largest contribution was made by food products;
  • Due to a decrease in the growth of the food component CPI there is a gradual slowdown in the  monthly consumer inflation;
  • External factors have a significant impact: amid of the conflict in Ukraine we can see the growth of world prices for energy resources, food and agricultural products;
  • Non-food inflation is rising due to higher prices for imported goods that are caused by rising prices in supply chains and emerging disruptions in their production;
  • The internal triggers of inflation are high household inflation expectations, soft fiscal policy measures of the Government, significant import dependence of domestic consumption;
  • The current disinflationary impact is exerted by the state moratorium on raising tariffs for regulated utilities and regulating prices for liquefied natural gas;
  • For May 2022 the highest inflation rates that are exceeding the average value of inflation in the country are observed in 4 regions;
  • The main risks for the further dynamics of domestic inflation are the global inflation background, uncertainty about the prospects for the deployment of a geopolitical conflict;
  • In the absence of additional negative shocks,  by the end of the year we expect inflation at the level of 14-15%. But there are significant risks from the imbalance of supply and demand in the world commodity markets, import of inflation from partner countries, negative consequences of maintaining a soft fiscal policy;
  • Food inflation will remain the main driver of price growth. In the current situation, these forecasts are characterized by a more significant degree of uncertainty that exceeds the usual range;
  • Abnormally high prices for fruits and vegetables in June-August 2021 will cause a more restrained increase in prices for these commodity groups in 2022. This is due to the effect of the high base effect of last year.

Read more in the paper

Aizhan Alibekova

Senior Analyst

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