June 22, 2022
InflationPrice barometer (May 2022)
Main conclusions
- In May an annual inflation accelerated to 14.0%. Growth was observed in all its components, and the largest contribution was made by food products;
- Due to a decrease in the growth of the food component CPI there is a gradual slowdown in the monthly consumer inflation;
- External factors have a significant impact: amid of the conflict in Ukraine we can see the growth of world prices for energy resources, food and agricultural products;
- Non-food inflation is rising due to higher prices for imported goods that are caused by rising prices in supply chains and emerging disruptions in their production;
- The internal triggers of inflation are high household inflation expectations, soft fiscal policy measures of the Government, significant import dependence of domestic consumption;
- The current disinflationary impact is exerted by the state moratorium on raising tariffs for regulated utilities and regulating prices for liquefied natural gas;
- For May 2022 the highest inflation rates that are exceeding the average value of inflation in the country are observed in 4 regions;
- The main risks for the further dynamics of domestic inflation are the global inflation background, uncertainty about the prospects for the deployment of a geopolitical conflict;
- In the absence of additional negative shocks, by the end of the year we expect inflation at the level of 14-15%. But there are significant risks from the imbalance of supply and demand in the world commodity markets, import of inflation from partner countries, negative consequences of maintaining a soft fiscal policy;
- Food inflation will remain the main driver of price growth. In the current situation, these forecasts are characterized by a more significant degree of uncertainty that exceeds the usual range;
- Abnormally high prices for fruits and vegetables in June-August 2021 will cause a more restrained increase in prices for these commodity groups in 2022. This is due to the effect of the high base effect of last year.
Read more in the paper
Aizhan Alibekova
Senior AnalystJune 22, 2022
InflationRelated News
09 October 23
How not to be unemployed: what you need to know about the future labour market
Experts of the World Economic Forum (WEF) presented new forecasts for business, professions and skills development in the next 5 years. The study is based on surveys of the largest employers and their expectations regarding business development, professions and skills. The survey involved 803 companies employing more than 11.3 million people, covering 27 industry clusters and 45 economies worldwide.
Key insights:
- Employers expect structural changes in 23% of jobs;
- The "green" economy is the main source of new jobs;
- Economic challenges are the greatest threat to the labour market;
- Advanced technologies will remain a key driver in business transformation;
- About 75% of the surveyed companies plan to implement AI by 2027;
- Up to 43% of all business tasks will be performed by machines in the coming 5 years;
- The most popular profession is artificial intelligence and machine learning specialists;
- Analytical thinking is a key skill for a successful career;
- 47% of the surveyed employers evaluate their skills when selecting candidates, and 45% require a diploma;
- In the next five years, 44% of the basic skills of employees will become obsolete and 6 out of 10 employees will have to undergo training.
One-off Researches
Businesslabour marketAlexandra Molchanovskaya
06 September 23
Financial analytics: How much do we spend on routine expenditures?
We face a variety of expenses that vary depending on our needs, circumstances and preferences in our daily lives. Some people need quality food, others need to repay loans regularly and for some entertainment and recreation become a priority. However, the question often arises: Do we have enough income to meet all these needs? What amount of money is needed to achieve a comfortable standard of living? Is it possible to classify yourself as middle class by your expenses?
In this regard, we decided to analyze the core expenditures that each person or family needs to achieve a minimum level of comfort and meet basic life needs. As a result of the study, we divided the employees of Astana and Almaty cities into 6 groups depending on their income and expenses and also determined the size of each class: the least well-off, low-income, lower middle class, middle class, prosperous and well-off.
Key insights:
- An average of 246.3 thousand tenge or 60% of salary is spent on core expenditures every month.
- The largest amount of daily expenses is observed in the first 4 days after receiving a wage.
- At least 450 thousand tenge per month is required to satisfy all basic needs for a comfortable life in megapolicies.
- Almost half of the employed in Astana and Almaty cities (49%) do not have enough earnings to cover their daily expenses.
- The is an essential disparity between workers and cities - there are 4 times more workers with financial difficulties in Almaty than in the capital.
- Only 4.4% of employees with wages from 700 thousand to 1.2 million tenge, whose daily expenses account for 40-50% of income, can be attributed to the middle class.
- Employees with above-average incomes make up the smallest share of the employed population - 2%.
One-off Researches
ConsumptionStandard of livingAlexandra Molchanovskaya
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