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Price barometer (October 2022)

Main conclusions

  • There are signs of inflationary pressure weakening in the context of a general decline in consumer demand in the world economy. Now the prospects for global economic growth are more pessimistic;
  • The annual growth rate of prices reached 18.8% – all components of the consumer basket made a significant contribution. The core inflation indicator exceeds the value of the general one, which indicates the wide and stable nature of inflationary processes spread;
  • An acceleration of food inflation was caused by the gradual depletion of the disinflationary effect of seasonal cheapening of fresh fruits and vegetables, while non-food and service slowed down;
  • Household inflation expectations have worsened and exceeded the actual level of inflation. This means that Kazakhstan citizens have changed their opinion about the imminent inflation slowdown and expect a longer price increase during 1 year;
  • The deterioration of inflation expectations is one of the key factors in favour of the likely tightening of monetary conditions within the framework of the indicated approaches and rhetoric of the National Bank of Kazakhstan to making decisions on the base rate;
  • According to our expectations, the main trigger for consumer price growth will be food shortly. Domestic prices may be affected by insufficient domestic production and the global rise in food prices, which may lead to the intention of several countries to ensure their food security;
  • The consumer prices increase in October is in line with the expectations of Jusan Analytics. Our forecasts suggest an acceleration of inflation to 20.8-21.3% by the end of this year.

Read more in the paper

Aizhan Alibekova

Senior Analyst

09 October 23

300

How not to be unemployed: what you need to know about the future labour market

Experts of the World Economic Forum (WEF) presented new forecasts for business, professions and skills development in the next 5 years. The study is based on surveys of the largest employers and their expectations regarding business development, professions and skills. The survey involved 803 companies employing more than 11.3 million people, covering 27 industry clusters and 45 economies worldwide.

Key insights:

  • Employers expect structural changes in 23% of jobs;
  • The "green" economy is the main source of new jobs;
  • Economic challenges are the greatest threat to the labour market;
  • Advanced technologies will remain a key driver in business transformation;
  • About 75% of the surveyed companies plan to implement AI by 2027;
  • Up to 43% of all business tasks will be performed by machines in the coming 5 years;
  • The most popular profession is artificial intelligence and machine learning specialists;
  • Analytical thinking is a key skill for a successful career;
  • 47% of the surveyed employers evaluate their skills when selecting candidates, and 45% require a diploma;
  • In the next five years, 44% of the basic skills of employees will become obsolete and 6 out of 10 employees will have to undergo training.

One-off Researches


Businesslabour marketAlexandra Molchanovskaya

06 September 23

1542

Financial analytics: How much do we spend on routine expenditures?

We face a variety of expenses that vary depending on our needs, circumstances and preferences in our daily lives. Some people need quality food, others need to repay loans regularly and for some entertainment and recreation become a priority. However, the question often arises: Do we have enough income to meet all these needs? What amount of money is needed to achieve a comfortable standard of living? Is it possible to classify yourself as middle class by your expenses? 

In this regard, we decided to analyze the core expenditures that each person or family needs to achieve a minimum level of comfort and meet basic life needs. As a result of the study, we divided the employees of Astana and Almaty cities into 6 groups depending on their income and expenses and also determined the size of each class: the least well-off, low-income, lower middle class, middle class, prosperous and well-off. 

Key insights:

  • An average of 246.3 thousand tenge or 60% of salary is spent on core expenditures every month.
  • The largest amount of daily expenses is observed in the first 4 days after receiving a wage.
  • At least 450 thousand tenge per month is required to satisfy all basic needs for a comfortable life in megapolicies.
  • Almost half of the employed in Astana and Almaty cities (49%) do not have enough earnings to cover their daily expenses.
  • The is an essential disparity between workers and cities - there are 4 times more workers with financial difficulties in Almaty than in the capital.
  • Only 4.4% of employees with wages from 700 thousand to 1.2 million tenge, whose daily expenses account for 40-50% of income, can be attributed to the middle class.
  • Employees with above-average incomes make up the smallest share of the employed population - 2%. 

One-off Researches


Standard of livingConsumptionAlexandra Molchanovskaya

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