November 1, 2022
InflationPrice barometer (September 2022)
Main conclusions
- The observed global tightening of monetary conditions is still weakly coping with the inflation slowdown, but it can significantly affect economic growth and reduce aggregate demand;
- The increased inflationary background in the economy will remain as long as the changes in supply and demand are out of sync;
- Inflation reached 17.7% by the end of September, all its components made a significant contribution. The growth of core inflation and its acceleration indicates a more stable nature of inflation;
- According to a survey of the population from the National Bank of the Republic of Kazakhstan, household inflation expectations have worsened and may cause further acceleration of consumer inflation. At the same time, the main reason for their deterioration is the opinion of respondents about a further significant increase in food prices;
- This year, the seasonal cheapening for fruits and vegetables is longer than usual. Prices for other groups of food products show acceleration due to higher producer prices against the background of increased production costs;
- Double-digit price growth, together with no signs of stabilization, is the reason for the slowdown in the growth of domestic trade as the main indicator of consumption. The simultaneous increase in the deposit base indicates the formation of savings behaviour among a certain part of the population to create a “safety airbag” in the conditions of economic and geopolitical turbulence;
- There is an outspoken asymmetry of regional inflationary processes in September. A more significant increase in inflation is noticed in the northern, eastern and central regions of the country. And the regional inflation rate is significantly lower in the south and west of Kazakhstan;
- No signs of stabilization in internal inflationary processes, along with frequently changing external conditions, serve as prerequisites for maintaining increased inflationary pressure until the end of this year.
Read more in the paper
Aizhan Alibekova
Senior AnalystNovember 1, 2022
InflationRelated News
09 October 23
How not to be unemployed: what you need to know about the future labour market
Experts of the World Economic Forum (WEF) presented new forecasts for business, professions and skills development in the next 5 years. The study is based on surveys of the largest employers and their expectations regarding business development, professions and skills. The survey involved 803 companies employing more than 11.3 million people, covering 27 industry clusters and 45 economies worldwide.
Key insights:
- Employers expect structural changes in 23% of jobs;
- The "green" economy is the main source of new jobs;
- Economic challenges are the greatest threat to the labour market;
- Advanced technologies will remain a key driver in business transformation;
- About 75% of the surveyed companies plan to implement AI by 2027;
- Up to 43% of all business tasks will be performed by machines in the coming 5 years;
- The most popular profession is artificial intelligence and machine learning specialists;
- Analytical thinking is a key skill for a successful career;
- 47% of the surveyed employers evaluate their skills when selecting candidates, and 45% require a diploma;
- In the next five years, 44% of the basic skills of employees will become obsolete and 6 out of 10 employees will have to undergo training.
One-off Researches
labour marketBusinessAlexandra Molchanovskaya
06 September 23
Financial analytics: How much do we spend on routine expenditures?
We face a variety of expenses that vary depending on our needs, circumstances and preferences in our daily lives. Some people need quality food, others need to repay loans regularly and for some entertainment and recreation become a priority. However, the question often arises: Do we have enough income to meet all these needs? What amount of money is needed to achieve a comfortable standard of living? Is it possible to classify yourself as middle class by your expenses?
In this regard, we decided to analyze the core expenditures that each person or family needs to achieve a minimum level of comfort and meet basic life needs. As a result of the study, we divided the employees of Astana and Almaty cities into 6 groups depending on their income and expenses and also determined the size of each class: the least well-off, low-income, lower middle class, middle class, prosperous and well-off.
Key insights:
- An average of 246.3 thousand tenge or 60% of salary is spent on core expenditures every month.
- The largest amount of daily expenses is observed in the first 4 days after receiving a wage.
- At least 450 thousand tenge per month is required to satisfy all basic needs for a comfortable life in megapolicies.
- Almost half of the employed in Astana and Almaty cities (49%) do not have enough earnings to cover their daily expenses.
- The is an essential disparity between workers and cities - there are 4 times more workers with financial difficulties in Almaty than in the capital.
- Only 4.4% of employees with wages from 700 thousand to 1.2 million tenge, whose daily expenses account for 40-50% of income, can be attributed to the middle class.
- Employees with above-average incomes make up the smallest share of the employed population - 2%.
One-off Researches
Standard of livingConsumptionAlexandra Molchanovskaya
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