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Price barometer (January 2023)

Risks and prospects

  • The balance of inflation risks remains biased in favour of inflation despite a moderate slowdown in the overall growth rate of consumer prices over the past 4 months.
  • And despite their decrease in January (this is a common situation that happens every year, and since February they have been growing again as usual) increased household inflation expectations, as well as the continued growth of the underlying inflationary pressure, are factors that require maintaining the base rate at the current level and maintaining hawkish rhetoric even after the reversal of the inflationary trend. At the same time, since the actual increase in inflation corresponds to the forecasts of the regulator, we regard the probability of a further increase in the base rate as minimal.
  • The heterogeneity of the dynamics of prices for market services with the continuing fiscal incentives may adversely limit the amplitude of the future decline in inflationary pressure and contribute to a longer period of high prices.
  • The cooling of consumer activity since the end of 2022, caused by a prolonged decline in household real incomes, the continuing rise in consumer prices and restraining monetary conditions, contributes to the cooling of inflationary pressure.
  • According to our forecasts, inflation during the first quarter of 2023 will continue to accelerate and will peak at 21.0-22.0% annually. And prices will decrease if there are no additional external and internal growth triggers.
  • Revised forecast values of future price growth dynamics will be presented “Price Barometer” for February 2023. Improving the forecasts of Jusan Analytics will mean that we identify stable signs of an improvement in the inflationary environment.

Read more in the paper

Aizhan Alibekova

Senior Analyst

09 October 23

374

How not to be unemployed: what you need to know about the future labour market

Experts of the World Economic Forum (WEF) presented new forecasts for business, professions and skills development in the next 5 years. The study is based on surveys of the largest employers and their expectations regarding business development, professions and skills. The survey involved 803 companies employing more than 11.3 million people, covering 27 industry clusters and 45 economies worldwide.

Key insights:

  • Employers expect structural changes in 23% of jobs;
  • The "green" economy is the main source of new jobs;
  • Economic challenges are the greatest threat to the labour market;
  • Advanced technologies will remain a key driver in business transformation;
  • About 75% of the surveyed companies plan to implement AI by 2027;
  • Up to 43% of all business tasks will be performed by machines in the coming 5 years;
  • The most popular profession is artificial intelligence and machine learning specialists;
  • Analytical thinking is a key skill for a successful career;
  • 47% of the surveyed employers evaluate their skills when selecting candidates, and 45% require a diploma;
  • In the next five years, 44% of the basic skills of employees will become obsolete and 6 out of 10 employees will have to undergo training.

Periodic Researches


labour marketBusinessAlexandra Molchanovskaya

06 September 23

1711

Financial analytics: How much do we spend on routine expenditures?

We face a variety of expenses that vary depending on our needs, circumstances and preferences in our daily lives. Some people need quality food, others need to repay loans regularly and for some entertainment and recreation become a priority. However, the question often arises: Do we have enough income to meet all these needs? What amount of money is needed to achieve a comfortable standard of living? Is it possible to classify yourself as middle class by your expenses? 

In this regard, we decided to analyze the core expenditures that each person or family needs to achieve a minimum level of comfort and meet basic life needs. As a result of the study, we divided the employees of Astana and Almaty cities into 6 groups depending on their income and expenses and also determined the size of each class: the least well-off, low-income, lower middle class, middle class, prosperous and well-off. 

Key insights:

  • An average of 246.3 thousand tenge or 60% of salary is spent on core expenditures every month.
  • The largest amount of daily expenses is observed in the first 4 days after receiving a wage.
  • At least 450 thousand tenge per month is required to satisfy all basic needs for a comfortable life in megapolicies.
  • Almost half of the employed in Astana and Almaty cities (49%) do not have enough earnings to cover their daily expenses.
  • The is an essential disparity between workers and cities - there are 4 times more workers with financial difficulties in Almaty than in the capital.
  • Only 4.4% of employees with wages from 700 thousand to 1.2 million tenge, whose daily expenses account for 40-50% of income, can be attributed to the middle class.
  • Employees with above-average incomes make up the smallest share of the employed population - 2%. 

One-off Researches


Standard of livingConsumptionAlexandra Molchanovskaya

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