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Monthly review of the economic climate and Jusan Analytics outlooks (March 2023)

We have published our vision of the development of the macroeconomic situation and forecasts for the key economic indicators.

The risk map area has expanded compared to last month due to the destabilization of the global financial sector. At the same time, there is a systematic reduction in the economic risks that have dominated the past year, such as inflation and supply chain disruption.

The current situation with Western banks leads to an increase in the risk premium on loans and the stock market. This situation is a natural result of the implementation of strict measures on monetary policy and improper risk management of several banks and not a systemic financial crisis.

Kazakhstan's economy is showing good growth rates. The expansion of fiscal stimulus, stabilization in the mining industry and the expected easing of price pressure were factors in the revision of GDP growth outlooks from 3.8-4.3% to 4.0-4.5%. At the same time, we note a steady overheating in the economy due to excessive demand stimulation. On the one hand, this leads to high GDP growth values, and on the other hand, it affects the preservation of inflation and the maintenance of high values of the base rate.

The weakening of external inflationary pressure, a stable exchange rate and the long-term maintenance of restraining monetary conditions that limit consumer activity, together with the weakening of risks from inflation expectations, caused the revision of the future dynamics of consumer inflation forecasts. According to our new baseline scenario, inflation will decrease to 13.4% (the previous estimate is 15.1%). The outlook for the tenge exchange rate provides for its weakening to 477 tenge per US dollar by the end of the year, and at the level of 456-466 in April.

Jusan Analytics

09 October 23

337

How not to be unemployed: what you need to know about the future labour market

Experts of the World Economic Forum (WEF) presented new forecasts for business, professions and skills development in the next 5 years. The study is based on surveys of the largest employers and their expectations regarding business development, professions and skills. The survey involved 803 companies employing more than 11.3 million people, covering 27 industry clusters and 45 economies worldwide.

Key insights:

  • Employers expect structural changes in 23% of jobs;
  • The "green" economy is the main source of new jobs;
  • Economic challenges are the greatest threat to the labour market;
  • Advanced technologies will remain a key driver in business transformation;
  • About 75% of the surveyed companies plan to implement AI by 2027;
  • Up to 43% of all business tasks will be performed by machines in the coming 5 years;
  • The most popular profession is artificial intelligence and machine learning specialists;
  • Analytical thinking is a key skill for a successful career;
  • 47% of the surveyed employers evaluate their skills when selecting candidates, and 45% require a diploma;
  • In the next five years, 44% of the basic skills of employees will become obsolete and 6 out of 10 employees will have to undergo training.

Periodic Researches


Businesslabour marketAlexandra Molchanovskaya

06 September 23

1638

Financial analytics: How much do we spend on routine expenditures?

We face a variety of expenses that vary depending on our needs, circumstances and preferences in our daily lives. Some people need quality food, others need to repay loans regularly and for some entertainment and recreation become a priority. However, the question often arises: Do we have enough income to meet all these needs? What amount of money is needed to achieve a comfortable standard of living? Is it possible to classify yourself as middle class by your expenses? 

In this regard, we decided to analyze the core expenditures that each person or family needs to achieve a minimum level of comfort and meet basic life needs. As a result of the study, we divided the employees of Astana and Almaty cities into 6 groups depending on their income and expenses and also determined the size of each class: the least well-off, low-income, lower middle class, middle class, prosperous and well-off. 

Key insights:

  • An average of 246.3 thousand tenge or 60% of salary is spent on core expenditures every month.
  • The largest amount of daily expenses is observed in the first 4 days after receiving a wage.
  • At least 450 thousand tenge per month is required to satisfy all basic needs for a comfortable life in megapolicies.
  • Almost half of the employed in Astana and Almaty cities (49%) do not have enough earnings to cover their daily expenses.
  • The is an essential disparity between workers and cities - there are 4 times more workers with financial difficulties in Almaty than in the capital.
  • Only 4.4% of employees with wages from 700 thousand to 1.2 million tenge, whose daily expenses account for 40-50% of income, can be attributed to the middle class.
  • Employees with above-average incomes make up the smallest share of the employed population - 2%. 

One-off Researches


Standard of livingConsumptionAlexandra Molchanovskaya

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