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World macroeconomic outlook (August 2022)

Main conclusions

  • The world economy is dangerously close to stagnation or recession. The GDP growth rates are declining in both developed and developing countries;
  • In most developed and developing countries inflation is taking on dangerous proportions and leads to harsh measures to reduce the price growth;
  • The growth of key rates of the US Federal Reserve, the ECB and the Bank of England reduces the purchasing power of national currencies in developing countries;
  • The geopolitical tensions around Ukraine and the mutual exchange of sanctions worsen the current state and prospects of the world economy;
  • Central banks of developed countries and developing countries are raising key rates to combat inflation, which reduces the growth rate of the world GDP;
  • The growth of coronavirus cases in the world, severe government measures in China and several other countries to combat the virus are slowing down business activity worldwide;
  • Abnormal weather conditions in key centres of the world economy pose threats to the world GDP growth and world food security;
  • The GDP growth rates are declining in the largest economies (the USA and China), which slows down the world GDP growth;
  • Due to geopolitical tensions and international sanctions commodity markets have strong volatility.

Rafael Zhansultanov

Senior Analyst

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