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Monetary conditions (December 2022)

Monetary conditions tightened somewhat and became more disinflationary in December 2022. This happened while simultaneously REER forming at a level above its potential and reducing the negative gap in the real interest rate. The value of the RMC Index is in the zone of restraining monetary conditions and close to the neutral zone border.

The REER value for the period under review remained at the level of November 2022, which was facilitated by the continued favourable terms of trade. The trend of the REER strengthening observed in the last 5 months of 2022 should limit the price competitiveness of Kazakhstan producers in foreign markets. However, the periodic shortage in certain commodity markets due to geopolitical tensions reduces the possible negative effect on Kazakhstan’s export revenue. A slight reduction of the positive gap in the exchange rate component is a positive trend since this fact corresponds to a gradual correction of the REER value from its significant overestimation to a more fundamentally determined equilibrium value.

At the same time, the interest component gap was closer to 0, and the real interest rate was less negative. This is due to the base rate increase of 75 bps in early December and, contrary to the shock measures taken by the regulator in November 2022, a deterioration in inflation expectations, as well as an increasing excess of tenge liquidity by fiscal measures to support economic activity.

Aizhan Alibekova

Senior Analyst

09 October 23

333

How not to be unemployed: what you need to know about the future labour market

Experts of the World Economic Forum (WEF) presented new forecasts for business, professions and skills development in the next 5 years. The study is based on surveys of the largest employers and their expectations regarding business development, professions and skills. The survey involved 803 companies employing more than 11.3 million people, covering 27 industry clusters and 45 economies worldwide.

Key insights:

  • Employers expect structural changes in 23% of jobs;
  • The "green" economy is the main source of new jobs;
  • Economic challenges are the greatest threat to the labour market;
  • Advanced technologies will remain a key driver in business transformation;
  • About 75% of the surveyed companies plan to implement AI by 2027;
  • Up to 43% of all business tasks will be performed by machines in the coming 5 years;
  • The most popular profession is artificial intelligence and machine learning specialists;
  • Analytical thinking is a key skill for a successful career;
  • 47% of the surveyed employers evaluate their skills when selecting candidates, and 45% require a diploma;
  • In the next five years, 44% of the basic skills of employees will become obsolete and 6 out of 10 employees will have to undergo training.

One-off Researches


Businesslabour marketAlexandra Molchanovskaya

06 September 23

1629

Financial analytics: How much do we spend on routine expenditures?

We face a variety of expenses that vary depending on our needs, circumstances and preferences in our daily lives. Some people need quality food, others need to repay loans regularly and for some entertainment and recreation become a priority. However, the question often arises: Do we have enough income to meet all these needs? What amount of money is needed to achieve a comfortable standard of living? Is it possible to classify yourself as middle class by your expenses? 

In this regard, we decided to analyze the core expenditures that each person or family needs to achieve a minimum level of comfort and meet basic life needs. As a result of the study, we divided the employees of Astana and Almaty cities into 6 groups depending on their income and expenses and also determined the size of each class: the least well-off, low-income, lower middle class, middle class, prosperous and well-off. 

Key insights:

  • An average of 246.3 thousand tenge or 60% of salary is spent on core expenditures every month.
  • The largest amount of daily expenses is observed in the first 4 days after receiving a wage.
  • At least 450 thousand tenge per month is required to satisfy all basic needs for a comfortable life in megapolicies.
  • Almost half of the employed in Astana and Almaty cities (49%) do not have enough earnings to cover their daily expenses.
  • The is an essential disparity between workers and cities - there are 4 times more workers with financial difficulties in Almaty than in the capital.
  • Only 4.4% of employees with wages from 700 thousand to 1.2 million tenge, whose daily expenses account for 40-50% of income, can be attributed to the middle class.
  • Employees with above-average incomes make up the smallest share of the employed population - 2%. 

One-off Researches


ConsumptionStandard of livingAlexandra Molchanovskaya

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