June 9, 2023Banks
Kazakhstan's Banking Sector Overview (2012-2022)
The banking sector is an important indicator of the socio-economic state of the country since it reflects internal and global development trends.
The last few years have been tensed for Kazakhstan: the COVID-19 pandemic, and the military conflict in Ukraine, which led to a mutual exchange of sanctions, a rapid increase in inflation and retaliatory measures by central banks worldwide. All these and other factors undoubtedly had a significant impact on Kazakhstan's banking sector, but key market development trends were formed long before these events.
Over the past 10 years, the market has undergone several significant changes that have affected the corporate structure, assets and liabilities, as well as STB work as a whole. Bankruptcy, mergers and acquisitions take place almost every year. At the same time, the market concentration continues: large banks are growing, and smaller and weaker ones are forced to survive.
Having studied the dynamics of recent years, we see that significant structural problems are being formed outside the market. And due to this, the measures taken to improve banks may sometimes be insufficient.
Thus, the number of real and active corporate borrowers has decreased in the economy. Most likely, macroeconomic problems negatively affect the productivity of enterprises, and the state support provided to businesses masks the real picture.
In such conditions, the standard systems of banks for decision-making and analysis of the financial model of projects no longer work. Many companies and even entire industries have a bad credit history. In addition, everything is complicated by the fact that a significant number of companies are closed every year, and new ones are opened instead of them. Banks are forced to hold on to their stable customers, offering them preferential terms.
The reduction in long-term lending to legal entities is forcing banks to reorient more and more on retail customers. In fact, over the past 5 years, the retail segment has become the locomotive of the development of the banking system. Rapid growth is fraught with serious challenges – in the retail segment, risks can accumulate imperceptibly and be realized at a very high speed and with great consequences.
The growth of the retail segment has brought digitalization to the fore. Banks are actively building digital ecosystems to attract and retain customers, they were among the first to use their big data for business development. Many banks have learned to form customer portraits more clearly: to determine their needs, and to study their consumer habits. The output with standard products is already ineffective.
We tried to analyze and identify the main trends in the country's banking market from a wide angle (zoom out) over the past 10 years, to study changes in the behaviour of banks and their customers.
Read more in the paper
Timur DauranovSenior Analyst
June 9, 2023Banks
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