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A Review of Fiscal Policy (1 half-year 2022)

Main conclusions

  • High energy prices ensured a 77% increase in tax revenues compared to last year;
  • A quarter of budget revenues are transfers from the National Fund, which increased by 15% in the first half of the year;
  • The execution of the plan for tax revenues to the National Fund in the first half of the year amounted to 79.3%;
  • The largest revenue growth is observed in Almaty, Shymkent and Atyrau regions. The largest expenditure growth is noted in Almaty region, Almaty city and the capital;
  • The share of transfers to local budgets is on average half of the income. In some areas, the share exceeds 70%;
  • The bulk of expenditures comes to education, social assistance and security, while there is an increase in defense expenditures;
  • Kazakhstan’s public debt continues to grow. 725.2 billion tenge has been allocated from the state budget for debt servicing, which is significantly more than in previous years;
  • The political and economic situation that has developed due to the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, and the global monetary tightening harms the fiscal policy of Kazakhstan and leads to the need to revise the budget constantly;
  • The basic risk to the budget of Kazakhstan is still its high dependence on the oil and gas sector. At the same time, many existing state programs and national projects indicate that the budget expenditure will only grow;
  • The government should not delay the transition to a countercyclical policy of budget planning in the face of external threats of inflation and pricing pressure.

Risks and prospects

The political and economic situation that has developed due to the conflict between Russia and Ukraine and the global monetary tightening harms the country’s fiscal policy and requires constant budget revision.

The government increases guaranteed transfers from the National Fund every time and support the budget, while there is a continuing increase in the non-oil deficit. This leads to economic instability and indicates significant risks for maintaining fiscal stability.

In our opinion, the basic risk to the budget of Kazakhstan is still its high dependence on the oil and gas sector.

The current budget surplus is formed only hence price surge of energy prices.

At the same time, many existing state programs indicate that the expenditure budget will only grow. And the efficiency of the allocation and use of budget funds remains controversial.

Thus, the government should not delay the transition to a countercyclical policy of budget planning in the face of external threats of inflation and pricing pressure.

Klara Seidakhmetova

Senior Analyst

09 October 23

303

How not to be unemployed: what you need to know about the future labour market

Experts of the World Economic Forum (WEF) presented new forecasts for business, professions and skills development in the next 5 years. The study is based on surveys of the largest employers and their expectations regarding business development, professions and skills. The survey involved 803 companies employing more than 11.3 million people, covering 27 industry clusters and 45 economies worldwide.

Key insights:

  • Employers expect structural changes in 23% of jobs;
  • The "green" economy is the main source of new jobs;
  • Economic challenges are the greatest threat to the labour market;
  • Advanced technologies will remain a key driver in business transformation;
  • About 75% of the surveyed companies plan to implement AI by 2027;
  • Up to 43% of all business tasks will be performed by machines in the coming 5 years;
  • The most popular profession is artificial intelligence and machine learning specialists;
  • Analytical thinking is a key skill for a successful career;
  • 47% of the surveyed employers evaluate their skills when selecting candidates, and 45% require a diploma;
  • In the next five years, 44% of the basic skills of employees will become obsolete and 6 out of 10 employees will have to undergo training.

One-off Researches


Businesslabour marketAlexandra Molchanovskaya

06 September 23

1551

Financial analytics: How much do we spend on routine expenditures?

We face a variety of expenses that vary depending on our needs, circumstances and preferences in our daily lives. Some people need quality food, others need to repay loans regularly and for some entertainment and recreation become a priority. However, the question often arises: Do we have enough income to meet all these needs? What amount of money is needed to achieve a comfortable standard of living? Is it possible to classify yourself as middle class by your expenses? 

In this regard, we decided to analyze the core expenditures that each person or family needs to achieve a minimum level of comfort and meet basic life needs. As a result of the study, we divided the employees of Astana and Almaty cities into 6 groups depending on their income and expenses and also determined the size of each class: the least well-off, low-income, lower middle class, middle class, prosperous and well-off. 

Key insights:

  • An average of 246.3 thousand tenge or 60% of salary is spent on core expenditures every month.
  • The largest amount of daily expenses is observed in the first 4 days after receiving a wage.
  • At least 450 thousand tenge per month is required to satisfy all basic needs for a comfortable life in megapolicies.
  • Almost half of the employed in Astana and Almaty cities (49%) do not have enough earnings to cover their daily expenses.
  • The is an essential disparity between workers and cities - there are 4 times more workers with financial difficulties in Almaty than in the capital.
  • Only 4.4% of employees with wages from 700 thousand to 1.2 million tenge, whose daily expenses account for 40-50% of income, can be attributed to the middle class.
  • Employees with above-average incomes make up the smallest share of the employed population - 2%. 

One-off Researches


ConsumptionStandard of livingAlexandra Molchanovskaya

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