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A Review of Fiscal Policy (2022 results)

Risks and prospects of fiscal policy development in 2023

Increased geopolitical tensions due to the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, problems in supply chains and transportation of oil in April-May of last year led to the need to provide additional support to the economy. As a result, the Government revised its budget plans for 2022 and increased expenditures.

The sources of covering expenses were the revised guaranteed transfer level from the National Fund of the Republic of Kazakhstan (revision of the plan by +1.6 trillion tenge) and own budget revenues (by +3.5 trillion tenge). At the same time, fiscal stimulus in the short term primarily affects the expansion of aggregate demand, which leads to an additional increase in inflation.

According to the results of the year, the budget deficit was reduced due to record tax revenues over the past 5 years and under-fulfilled expenditure plans.

The budget was also strongly influenced by the transfer receipts from the National Fund of the Republic of Kazakhstan, without which the non-oil deficit is significantly deepening and exceeds the levels of previous years. Thus, the further development of fiscal policy will largely depend on external macroeconomic conditions and energy prices as before.

At the same time, we believe that the new concepts being developed today for the development of various sectors of the economy, designed to ensure the further trajectory of the country’s social and economic development, will continue to put pressure on the budget expenditures.

The issue of the budget revenue growth with a reduction in the share of oil revenues, planned within the framework of the republican budget for 2023-2025, remains quite difficult in the conditions of prolonged political/economic tension and global tightening of monetary measures.

And this, in our opinion, causes some uncertainty in the planned fiscal policy implementation this year.

Klara Seidakhmetova

Senior Analyst

09 October 23

290

How not to be unemployed: what you need to know about the future labour market

Experts of the World Economic Forum (WEF) presented new forecasts for business, professions and skills development in the next 5 years. The study is based on surveys of the largest employers and their expectations regarding business development, professions and skills. The survey involved 803 companies employing more than 11.3 million people, covering 27 industry clusters and 45 economies worldwide.

Key insights:

  • Employers expect structural changes in 23% of jobs;
  • The "green" economy is the main source of new jobs;
  • Economic challenges are the greatest threat to the labour market;
  • Advanced technologies will remain a key driver in business transformation;
  • About 75% of the surveyed companies plan to implement AI by 2027;
  • Up to 43% of all business tasks will be performed by machines in the coming 5 years;
  • The most popular profession is artificial intelligence and machine learning specialists;
  • Analytical thinking is a key skill for a successful career;
  • 47% of the surveyed employers evaluate their skills when selecting candidates, and 45% require a diploma;
  • In the next five years, 44% of the basic skills of employees will become obsolete and 6 out of 10 employees will have to undergo training.

Periodic Researches


labour marketBusinessAlexandra Molchanovskaya

06 September 23

1501

Financial analytics: How much do we spend on routine expenditures?

We face a variety of expenses that vary depending on our needs, circumstances and preferences in our daily lives. Some people need quality food, others need to repay loans regularly and for some entertainment and recreation become a priority. However, the question often arises: Do we have enough income to meet all these needs? What amount of money is needed to achieve a comfortable standard of living? Is it possible to classify yourself as middle class by your expenses? 

In this regard, we decided to analyze the core expenditures that each person or family needs to achieve a minimum level of comfort and meet basic life needs. As a result of the study, we divided the employees of Astana and Almaty cities into 6 groups depending on their income and expenses and also determined the size of each class: the least well-off, low-income, lower middle class, middle class, prosperous and well-off. 

Key insights:

  • An average of 246.3 thousand tenge or 60% of salary is spent on core expenditures every month.
  • The largest amount of daily expenses is observed in the first 4 days after receiving a wage.
  • At least 450 thousand tenge per month is required to satisfy all basic needs for a comfortable life in megapolicies.
  • Almost half of the employed in Astana and Almaty cities (49%) do not have enough earnings to cover their daily expenses.
  • The is an essential disparity between workers and cities - there are 4 times more workers with financial difficulties in Almaty than in the capital.
  • Only 4.4% of employees with wages from 700 thousand to 1.2 million tenge, whose daily expenses account for 40-50% of income, can be attributed to the middle class.
  • Employees with above-average incomes make up the smallest share of the employed population - 2%. 

One-off Researches


Standard of livingConsumptionAlexandra Molchanovskaya

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