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Russia under sanctions

The Russian economy has been under restrictions since 2014 and over the years it has structurally adapted to them. However, the level of sanctions pressure after February 22, 2022 is unprecedented, private companies have also joined the restrictions.

According to the Yale School of Management, since the beginning of the conflict in Ukraine, 799 large foreign companies have left Russia, 312 have reduced operations, investments, frozen projects, and only 244 continue their activities.

The restrictions imposed will be similar in scale to the structural crisis after the collapse of the USSR. Following our estimates, the decline in Russia's GDP in 2022 will be 9.5% — this is the second deepest recession since 1991, and inflation will exceed 20%.

The scale and variety of the imposed sanctions form a significant uncertainty of economic instability in Russia and other countries:

  1. cross-border flows of goods and payments are essentially hindered. This undermines supply chains and leads to a decrease in economic activity, as well as puts pressure on the labor market and inflation;
  2. the ability of the Central Bank and the Government to respond to an economic shock and a space for economic policy in the future is limited;
  3. investment activity and long-term economic growth potential are suppressed.

We tried to consider the main effects of sanctions on the Russian economy, possiblec channels of instability spreading to the economs of other countires, primarily Kazakhstan.

Main conclusions

  • Russia is better prepared for sanctions today;
  • Pressure on the ruble is low due to the limited demand;
  • The ruble exchange rate will be determined by fiscal needs;
  • The scale of the crisis in Russia will be determined by the depth of export restrictions;
  • The world will face the  price shocks on the energy and food markets;
  • Central Asian countries will suffer from disruption of supply chains and a decrease in transfers from the Russian Federation;
  • Significant risks are emerging in the food market for Kazakhstan.

Alexander Dauranov

Executive Director

09 October 23

304

How not to be unemployed: what you need to know about the future labour market

Experts of the World Economic Forum (WEF) presented new forecasts for business, professions and skills development in the next 5 years. The study is based on surveys of the largest employers and their expectations regarding business development, professions and skills. The survey involved 803 companies employing more than 11.3 million people, covering 27 industry clusters and 45 economies worldwide.

Key insights:

  • Employers expect structural changes in 23% of jobs;
  • The "green" economy is the main source of new jobs;
  • Economic challenges are the greatest threat to the labour market;
  • Advanced technologies will remain a key driver in business transformation;
  • About 75% of the surveyed companies plan to implement AI by 2027;
  • Up to 43% of all business tasks will be performed by machines in the coming 5 years;
  • The most popular profession is artificial intelligence and machine learning specialists;
  • Analytical thinking is a key skill for a successful career;
  • 47% of the surveyed employers evaluate their skills when selecting candidates, and 45% require a diploma;
  • In the next five years, 44% of the basic skills of employees will become obsolete and 6 out of 10 employees will have to undergo training.

Periodic Researches


labour marketBusinessAlexandra Molchanovskaya

06 September 23

1552

Financial analytics: How much do we spend on routine expenditures?

We face a variety of expenses that vary depending on our needs, circumstances and preferences in our daily lives. Some people need quality food, others need to repay loans regularly and for some entertainment and recreation become a priority. However, the question often arises: Do we have enough income to meet all these needs? What amount of money is needed to achieve a comfortable standard of living? Is it possible to classify yourself as middle class by your expenses? 

In this regard, we decided to analyze the core expenditures that each person or family needs to achieve a minimum level of comfort and meet basic life needs. As a result of the study, we divided the employees of Astana and Almaty cities into 6 groups depending on their income and expenses and also determined the size of each class: the least well-off, low-income, lower middle class, middle class, prosperous and well-off. 

Key insights:

  • An average of 246.3 thousand tenge or 60% of salary is spent on core expenditures every month.
  • The largest amount of daily expenses is observed in the first 4 days after receiving a wage.
  • At least 450 thousand tenge per month is required to satisfy all basic needs for a comfortable life in megapolicies.
  • Almost half of the employed in Astana and Almaty cities (49%) do not have enough earnings to cover their daily expenses.
  • The is an essential disparity between workers and cities - there are 4 times more workers with financial difficulties in Almaty than in the capital.
  • Only 4.4% of employees with wages from 700 thousand to 1.2 million tenge, whose daily expenses account for 40-50% of income, can be attributed to the middle class.
  • Employees with above-average incomes make up the smallest share of the employed population - 2%. 

One-off Researches


ConsumptionStandard of livingAlexandra Molchanovskaya

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