June 8, 2022
SurveysSanctions rebound
Jusan Analytics team have surveyed representatives of small and medium–sized businesses – clients of Jusan Bank. The purpose of the survey is to determine the scale of the impact of anti–Russian sanctions on Kazakhstan business. Specifically, some questions allowed us to determine the degree of business dependence on the Russian Federation to assess its subsequent reaction to the growth of economic uncertainty.
The survey was conducted in May 2022 and was attended by 227 respondents-companies from all over Kazakhstan. Their distribution according to the regions is quite diversified. According to the number of employees, 44% of the surveyed companies are representatives of microbusinesses, 43% – are small-sized, 10% – are medium-sized, and 3% – are large businesses. Thus, the presented sample can be considered transparent and can reliably reflect the current trends.
Main conclusions
- The survey results confirm the existence of a strong dependence of business on the Russian Federation – 41%. More than half of the companies interacting with the Russian Federation cannot switch to other partners;
- Anti-Russian sanctions harm the domestic business: purchase prices are rising, problems with bank transfers, and the supply of goods are appearing;
- The inevitable import of inflation through trade channels with Russia during the maintenance of the volume of demand in Kazakhstan. The surveyed companies do not feel a decrease in demand;
- After the sanctions shock in business issues, there were problems with payments and transfers. To date, we do not note the presence of this problem while considering banking business processes. The presence of such a problem could affect the extension of the supply chains of goods if it were not for the rapid reorientation of the STB;
- Domestic business is highly dependent on external factors, primarily the exchange rate volatility, and to a lesser extent on internal, operational ones;
- 37% of respondents noted that they expect a decrease in production. It is due to disruption and extension of supply and production chains, not an internal economic downturn or a demand contraction;
- Kazakh businesses are planning to increase prices for their goods or services. It is the most optimal business solution to maintain marginality in the prevailing conditions. If administrative regulation is introduced, the business will be forced to decrease production. It may lead to an even further decline in GDP growth and an increase in unsatisfied demand, prices;
- The businesses are going to increase prices in the next 3 months by an average of 5.36 p.p. Selling final goods companies – by 6.52 p.p. Companies that are selling raw materials and goods for further processing by 5.57 p.p. Companies providing services – 3.3 p.p.
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Vladislav Turkin
Department DirectorJune 8, 2022
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