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Sanctions rebound

Jusan Analytics team have surveyed representatives of small and medium–sized businesses – clients of Jusan Bank. The purpose of the survey is to determine the scale of the impact of anti–Russian sanctions on Kazakhstan business. Specifically, some questions allowed us to determine the degree of business dependence on the Russian Federation to assess its subsequent reaction to the growth of economic uncertainty.

The survey was conducted in May 2022 and was attended by 227 respondents-companies from all over Kazakhstan. Their distribution according to the regions is quite diversified. According to the number of employees, 44% of the surveyed companies are representatives of microbusinesses, 43% – are small-sized, 10% – are medium-sized, and 3% – are large businesses. Thus, the presented sample can be considered transparent and can reliably reflect the current trends.

Main conclusions

  • The survey results confirm the existence of a strong dependence of business on the Russian Federation – 41%. More than half of the companies interacting with the Russian Federation cannot switch to other partners;
  • Anti-Russian sanctions harm the domestic business: purchase prices are rising, problems with bank transfers, and the supply of goods are appearing;
  • The inevitable import of inflation through trade channels with Russia during the maintenance of the volume of demand in Kazakhstan. The surveyed companies do not feel a decrease in demand;
  • After the sanctions shock in business issues, there were problems with payments and transfers. To date, we do not note the presence of this problem while considering banking business processes. The presence of such a problem could affect the extension of the supply chains of goods if it were not for the rapid reorientation of the STB;
  • Domestic business is highly dependent on external factors, primarily the exchange rate volatility, and to a lesser extent on internal, operational ones;
  • 37% of respondents noted that they expect a decrease in production. It is due to disruption and extension of supply and production chains, not an internal economic downturn or a demand contraction;
  • Kazakh businesses are planning to increase prices for their goods or services. It is the most optimal business solution to maintain marginality in the prevailing conditions. If administrative regulation is introduced, the business will be forced to decrease production. It may lead to an even further decline in GDP growth and an increase in unsatisfied demand, prices;
  • The businesses are going to increase prices in the next 3 months by an average of 5.36 p.p. Selling final goods companies – by 6.52 p.p. Companies that are selling raw materials and goods for further processing by 5.57 p.p. Companies providing services – 3.3 p.p.

Read more in the paper

Vladislav Turkin

Department Director

09 October 23

377

How not to be unemployed: what you need to know about the future labour market

Experts of the World Economic Forum (WEF) presented new forecasts for business, professions and skills development in the next 5 years. The study is based on surveys of the largest employers and their expectations regarding business development, professions and skills. The survey involved 803 companies employing more than 11.3 million people, covering 27 industry clusters and 45 economies worldwide.

Key insights:

  • Employers expect structural changes in 23% of jobs;
  • The "green" economy is the main source of new jobs;
  • Economic challenges are the greatest threat to the labour market;
  • Advanced technologies will remain a key driver in business transformation;
  • About 75% of the surveyed companies plan to implement AI by 2027;
  • Up to 43% of all business tasks will be performed by machines in the coming 5 years;
  • The most popular profession is artificial intelligence and machine learning specialists;
  • Analytical thinking is a key skill for a successful career;
  • 47% of the surveyed employers evaluate their skills when selecting candidates, and 45% require a diploma;
  • In the next five years, 44% of the basic skills of employees will become obsolete and 6 out of 10 employees will have to undergo training.

One-off Researches


Businesslabour marketAlexandra Molchanovskaya

06 September 23

1718

Financial analytics: How much do we spend on routine expenditures?

We face a variety of expenses that vary depending on our needs, circumstances and preferences in our daily lives. Some people need quality food, others need to repay loans regularly and for some entertainment and recreation become a priority. However, the question often arises: Do we have enough income to meet all these needs? What amount of money is needed to achieve a comfortable standard of living? Is it possible to classify yourself as middle class by your expenses? 

In this regard, we decided to analyze the core expenditures that each person or family needs to achieve a minimum level of comfort and meet basic life needs. As a result of the study, we divided the employees of Astana and Almaty cities into 6 groups depending on their income and expenses and also determined the size of each class: the least well-off, low-income, lower middle class, middle class, prosperous and well-off. 

Key insights:

  • An average of 246.3 thousand tenge or 60% of salary is spent on core expenditures every month.
  • The largest amount of daily expenses is observed in the first 4 days after receiving a wage.
  • At least 450 thousand tenge per month is required to satisfy all basic needs for a comfortable life in megapolicies.
  • Almost half of the employed in Astana and Almaty cities (49%) do not have enough earnings to cover their daily expenses.
  • The is an essential disparity between workers and cities - there are 4 times more workers with financial difficulties in Almaty than in the capital.
  • Only 4.4% of employees with wages from 700 thousand to 1.2 million tenge, whose daily expenses account for 40-50% of income, can be attributed to the middle class.
  • Employees with above-average incomes make up the smallest share of the employed population - 2%. 

One-off Researches


ConsumptionStandard of livingAlexandra Molchanovskaya

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