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In March, the market dynamics of the national currency were maintained. The Exchange Market Pressure Index increased by 0.1 percentage points, however, the Index value itself is still in the zone of external pressure absence. Such dynamics are primarily due to the growth of international reserves and the National Fund assets, as well as the growth of the average weighted TONIA rate.

The Exchange Market Pressure Index increased by 2.9 percentage points in February, but its value still indicates the absence of excessive pressure on the exchange rate. Now, the exchange rate dynamics reflect the balance of market factors to the greatest extent. The chart below shows an abnormally high growth of the Index in March 2022 (+31.6 p.p.), which occurred due to a decrease in international reserves and a sharp increase in the base rate. The surges were observed in June (a decrease in reserves by 3%), in August, September (the impact of an increase in the base rate) and December (an increase in TONIA rate). Such a change in the Index indicates a certain degree of interference in the foreign exchange market

We have published our vision of the development of the macroeconomic situation and forecasts for the key economic indicators.

The risk map area has expanded compared to last month due to the destabilization of the global financial sector. At the same time, there is a systematic reduction in the economic risks that have dominated the past year, such as inflation and supply chain disruption.

The current situation with Western banks leads to an increase in the risk premium on loans and the stock market. This situation is a natural result of the implementation of strict measures on monetary policy and improper risk management of several banks and not a systemic financial crisis.

Kazakhstan's economy is showing good growth rates. The expansion of fiscal stimulus, stabilization in the mining industry and the expected easing of price pressure were factors in the revision of GDP growth outlooks from 3.8-4.3% to 4.0-4.5%. At the same time, we note a steady overheating in the economy due to excessive demand stimulation. On the one hand, this leads to high GDP growth values, and on the other hand, it affects the preservation of inflation and the maintenance of high values of the base rate.

The weakening of external inflationary pressure, a stable exchange rate and the long-term maintenance of restraining monetary conditions that limit consumer activity, together with the weakening of risks from inflation expectations, caused the revision of the future dynamics of consumer inflation forecasts. According to our new baseline scenario, inflation will decrease to 13.4% (the previous estimate is 15.1%). The outlook for the tenge exchange rate provides for its weakening to 477 tenge per US dollar by the end of the year, and at the level of 456-466 in April.