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Leading indicator of economy (10 months 2022)

As we expected, the growth of the short-term economic indicator for 10 months of 2022 continued to slow down and amounted to 3.1%. Growth for 9 months has reached 3.5%.

The decline in growth rates is observed in the sectors of production of goods and services. There is a cooling in industry, trade, transport and warehousing. At the same time, agriculture and communications have grown.

The industrial sector is slowing down: the mining industry has moved into negative territory (-1%), and the growth of the manufacturing industry has decreased from 4.6% to 4.3%. Problems are noticed in the production of crude oil (-2.5%), natural gas (-1.5%), iron ores (-18.5%) and other minerals (-9.9%).

The construction industry is returning to its potential level after the overheating previously observed in the market.

Problems in the industry also affect separate sectors in the service industry. Thus, domestic trade continued to slow down from +4.3% to +4.1%. And we believe that the slowdown is due to the increase in food prices (+23.1% YoY in October) and the high base of last year. Due to a 2.9% drop in cargo transportation and a decrease in the growth rate of cargo turnover from 3.0% to 2.5%, growth cooled from 4.8% to 3.9% in transport and warehousing.

At the same time, the growth of the agricultural sector reached 8.2% due to a good harvest.

The telecommunication market shows advanced development (+7.1%). This is due to the growth of Internet services in Almaty and Astana cities.

Klara Seidakhmetova

Senior Analyst

09 October 23

299

How not to be unemployed: what you need to know about the future labour market

Experts of the World Economic Forum (WEF) presented new forecasts for business, professions and skills development in the next 5 years. The study is based on surveys of the largest employers and their expectations regarding business development, professions and skills. The survey involved 803 companies employing more than 11.3 million people, covering 27 industry clusters and 45 economies worldwide.

Key insights:

  • Employers expect structural changes in 23% of jobs;
  • The "green" economy is the main source of new jobs;
  • Economic challenges are the greatest threat to the labour market;
  • Advanced technologies will remain a key driver in business transformation;
  • About 75% of the surveyed companies plan to implement AI by 2027;
  • Up to 43% of all business tasks will be performed by machines in the coming 5 years;
  • The most popular profession is artificial intelligence and machine learning specialists;
  • Analytical thinking is a key skill for a successful career;
  • 47% of the surveyed employers evaluate their skills when selecting candidates, and 45% require a diploma;
  • In the next five years, 44% of the basic skills of employees will become obsolete and 6 out of 10 employees will have to undergo training.

One-off Researches


Businesslabour marketAlexandra Molchanovskaya

06 September 23

1539

Financial analytics: How much do we spend on routine expenditures?

We face a variety of expenses that vary depending on our needs, circumstances and preferences in our daily lives. Some people need quality food, others need to repay loans regularly and for some entertainment and recreation become a priority. However, the question often arises: Do we have enough income to meet all these needs? What amount of money is needed to achieve a comfortable standard of living? Is it possible to classify yourself as middle class by your expenses? 

In this regard, we decided to analyze the core expenditures that each person or family needs to achieve a minimum level of comfort and meet basic life needs. As a result of the study, we divided the employees of Astana and Almaty cities into 6 groups depending on their income and expenses and also determined the size of each class: the least well-off, low-income, lower middle class, middle class, prosperous and well-off. 

Key insights:

  • An average of 246.3 thousand tenge or 60% of salary is spent on core expenditures every month.
  • The largest amount of daily expenses is observed in the first 4 days after receiving a wage.
  • At least 450 thousand tenge per month is required to satisfy all basic needs for a comfortable life in megapolicies.
  • Almost half of the employed in Astana and Almaty cities (49%) do not have enough earnings to cover their daily expenses.
  • The is an essential disparity between workers and cities - there are 4 times more workers with financial difficulties in Almaty than in the capital.
  • Only 4.4% of employees with wages from 700 thousand to 1.2 million tenge, whose daily expenses account for 40-50% of income, can be attributed to the middle class.
  • Employees with above-average incomes make up the smallest share of the employed population - 2%. 

One-off Researches


Standard of livingConsumptionAlexandra Molchanovskaya

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