We face a variety of expenses that vary depending on our needs, circumstances and preferences in our daily lives. Some people need quality food, others need to repay loans regularly and for some entertainment and recreation become a priority. However, the question often arises: Do we have enough income to meet all these needs? What amount of money is needed to achieve a comfortable standard of living? Is it possible to classify yourself as middle class by your expenses? 

In this regard, we decided to analyze the core expenditures that each person or family needs to achieve a minimum level of comfort and meet basic life needs. As a result of the study, we divided the employees of Astana and Almaty cities into 6 groups depending on their income and expenses and also determined the size of each class: the least well-off, low-income, lower middle class, middle class, prosperous and well-off. 

Key insights:

• An average of 246.3 thousand tenge or 60% of salary is spent on core expenditures every month.
• The largest amount of daily expenses is observed in the first 4 days after receiving a wage.
• At least 450 thousand tenge per month is required to satisfy all basic needs for a comfortable life in megapolicies.
• Almost half of the employed in Astana and Almaty cities (49%) do not have enough earnings to cover their daily expenses.
• The is an essential disparity between workers and cities - there are 4 times more workers with financial difficulties in Almaty than in the capital.
• Only 4.4% of employees with wages from 700 thousand to 1.2 million tenge, whose daily expenses account for 40-50% of income, can be attributed to the middle class.
• Employees with above-average incomes make up the smallest share of the employed population - 2%. 

Our research is devoted to the analysis of the global food service industry and the two largest cities of Kazakhstan - Almaty and Astana. The work includes a variety of businesses, such as restaurants and cafes, bars, fast food restaurants, as well as food delivery. 

The global food service industry will continue its development, relying on the food delivery expansion, the development of technologies in the food industry, the digitalization of processes and the active introduction of innovative approaches.

Kazakhstan's food service industry is also at the stage of rapid growth, and the most popular segment is full-service restaurants. The analysis of the domestic market was carried out on the basis of our up-to-date data containing information on the amount, number and frequency of customer transactions. 

And we determined that high competition causes low business survival - almost a third of restaurants in two major cities of Kazakhstan cannot stay on the market even for a year. 

The average bill of catering places varies throughout the year due to many factors, such as seasonality, holidays, economic situation, etc. The average bill and visit frequency at public catering places also depend on the age of visitors. People over 35 visit are willing to spend more money although visit restaurants less often, whereas young people under 35 visit restaurants more often, but their average bill is much lower.

The results of the study can be useful for developing an industry development strategy and making decisions for a new or existing business.

According to RMCI dynamics, there is a further monetary ridigity strengthening in May 2023. The Index components have an undirectional effect on prices, while the main contribution to the monetary conditions tightening is made by the exchange rate component. And both RMCI Index components began to deviate more strongly from their equilibrium value following May 2023 results.

Despite the increasing transition of the real interest rate to the zone of positive values, provided by the weakening of price pressure while maintaining the NBK base rate at 16.75%, it has a weak deterrent effect on household consumption behaviour. 

Firstly, the household decisions to save or spend come from their inflation expectations, which by the end of May 2023 were higher than the actual dynamics of price growth (17 vs. 15.9) and reflect the intuitive expectations of economic agents of further inflation growth due to the influence of price conjuncture in the housing and fuel markets. Secondly, the availability of consumer credit, as well as active fiscal leverage increases incentives to keep consumer demand excessive, which continues to create an imbalance in market forces.

The continued expansion of the positive gap in the real effective exchange rate of tenge that was provided by a high base rate leads to an increase in the restraining effect of monetary conditions on the import component of prices. Thus, the main influence of monetary conditions is mostly expressed in the control of the external component of consumer inflation. While measures aimed at limiting domestic price pressure do not work due to the inconsistency of macroeconomic policy measures and the weakness of the percentage channel of the monetary policy transmission mechanism.  
 

According to the data for the first half of the year, the economy grew by 5%, while the short-term economy indicator - by 5.6%. The widening of the difference between the short-term economic indicator and GDP data occurred as a result of the economic downturn in professional activity fields, real estate transactions and public administration and defence. Cyclical industries continue to be the main economic drivers, growing by double-digit values due to the increased government spending, growing consumer activity and the implementation of infrastructure modernization plans. We expect these industries to continue to maintain high growth rates. 

The industrial sector also has an additional positive impact on the economy. Thus, the mining industry grew by 15.4% compared to June last year as a result of the base effect. Considering that last year the problems at CPC and Kashagan continued until November, we should expect the development of this industry at high levels by the end of the year.

Thus, the previously observed trends persist and the economy continues to be in the overheating zone. 

Given the above, we expect the economy to maintain high growth rates in the range of 4.7-5.0% next month, followed by a slight decline to 4.5-4.8% at the end of the year. This will also be affected by improving business conditions, good demand for goods and services from the population, a boom in the construction industry and a stable situation in foreign markets.

However, there are still risks from the deterioration of the geopolitical situation, falling oil prices due to insufficient demand and accelerated price growth within the country.

We expect annual economic growth at the level of 3.9-4.2% from 2024. One of the main engines of such growth will be the hydrocarbon sector due to the expansion of oil fields and an increase in oil production, alternative routes in supply chains, as well as the introduction of new production facilities as part of the national development plan implementations.