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Leading indicator of economy (11 months 2022)

The short-term economic indicator growth demonstrated recovering dynamics and amounted to 3.2% over the 11 months of 2022.

The recovery in growth rates is noticed in the services sector, while the goods sector continues its slowdown. There is still observing cooling in the construction and industrial sectors. A good recovery has taken place in the trade sector. And stable growth is observed in agriculture and communications.

The industrial sector is stagnating: the mining industry remains in the negative zone with a slight improvement (from -1% in 10 months to -0.9% now), and the growth of the manufacturing industry is declined from 4.3% to 4.2%. The mining sector remains problematic: crude oil (-2.2%), natural gas (-1.4%), iron ores (-20.2%) and other minerals (-8.9%). There is a slight decrease in the manufacturing sector that is due to a slowdown in the growth of tobacco production (from 12.7% to 9.8%), light (from 7.8% to 6.9%) and metallurgical (from 4.4% to 3.9% of industries.

The growth rate in the construction industry is cooling due to a decrease in the growth of construction of non-residential buildings.

At the same time, a significant growth boost occurred in the trade sector, where retail trade increased from 1.4% to 2.0% and wholesale from 5.3% to 6.0%. However, the growth of the food trade is cooling, which, in our opinion, is due to the growing inflationary pressure and the consumer purchasing power (food inflation in November +24.1%).

the transport and warehousing industry remained almost at the same level due to a drop in cargo transportation by 3.1% and a decrease in the growth rate of cargo turnover to 1.8%.

And due to a good harvest this year growth in the agricultural sector reached 8.5%. Whereas, the growth was +7.6% in the telecommunications and data trans market: Internet services continue to grow in Almaty and Astana cities.

Klara Seidakhmetova

Senior Analyst

09 October 23

290

How not to be unemployed: what you need to know about the future labour market

Experts of the World Economic Forum (WEF) presented new forecasts for business, professions and skills development in the next 5 years. The study is based on surveys of the largest employers and their expectations regarding business development, professions and skills. The survey involved 803 companies employing more than 11.3 million people, covering 27 industry clusters and 45 economies worldwide.

Key insights:

  • Employers expect structural changes in 23% of jobs;
  • The "green" economy is the main source of new jobs;
  • Economic challenges are the greatest threat to the labour market;
  • Advanced technologies will remain a key driver in business transformation;
  • About 75% of the surveyed companies plan to implement AI by 2027;
  • Up to 43% of all business tasks will be performed by machines in the coming 5 years;
  • The most popular profession is artificial intelligence and machine learning specialists;
  • Analytical thinking is a key skill for a successful career;
  • 47% of the surveyed employers evaluate their skills when selecting candidates, and 45% require a diploma;
  • In the next five years, 44% of the basic skills of employees will become obsolete and 6 out of 10 employees will have to undergo training.

Periodic Researches


labour marketBusinessAlexandra Molchanovskaya

06 September 23

1501

Financial analytics: How much do we spend on routine expenditures?

We face a variety of expenses that vary depending on our needs, circumstances and preferences in our daily lives. Some people need quality food, others need to repay loans regularly and for some entertainment and recreation become a priority. However, the question often arises: Do we have enough income to meet all these needs? What amount of money is needed to achieve a comfortable standard of living? Is it possible to classify yourself as middle class by your expenses? 

In this regard, we decided to analyze the core expenditures that each person or family needs to achieve a minimum level of comfort and meet basic life needs. As a result of the study, we divided the employees of Astana and Almaty cities into 6 groups depending on their income and expenses and also determined the size of each class: the least well-off, low-income, lower middle class, middle class, prosperous and well-off. 

Key insights:

  • An average of 246.3 thousand tenge or 60% of salary is spent on core expenditures every month.
  • The largest amount of daily expenses is observed in the first 4 days after receiving a wage.
  • At least 450 thousand tenge per month is required to satisfy all basic needs for a comfortable life in megapolicies.
  • Almost half of the employed in Astana and Almaty cities (49%) do not have enough earnings to cover their daily expenses.
  • The is an essential disparity between workers and cities - there are 4 times more workers with financial difficulties in Almaty than in the capital.
  • Only 4.4% of employees with wages from 700 thousand to 1.2 million tenge, whose daily expenses account for 40-50% of income, can be attributed to the middle class.
  • Employees with above-average incomes make up the smallest share of the employed population - 2%. 

One-off Researches


Standard of livingConsumptionAlexandra Molchanovskaya

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