Leading indicator of economy (2 months of 2023)
According to the results of 2 months of 2023, the growth of the short-term economic indicator slowed down and amounted to 4.0%
A slight cooling occurred due to a slowdown in the growth of the service sector from 7.6% to 5.0%. And the goods production sector, on the contrary, grew from 2.3% to 2.7%.
The main sectors of the economy continued to develop in positive dynamics, while a slight decrease in growth rates was noted in the communication, wholesale and retail trade, transportation and warehousing, as well as in the mining sector.
The construction has shown the greatest growth of 12.8%. Construction of residential buildings in January-February decreased by 11.8%. At the same time, the construction of non-residential buildings increased by 35.4%, which blocked the negative impact of the housing part. The construction of structures increased by 5.3%. The growth is due to an increase in investments in fixed assets by 19.3% (last year +2.6%), the delivery of construction projects and continued state support.
The growth rate accelerated to 3.9% in the agricultural sector due to the increased production of the main types of livestock products by 4.1%.
A questionable matter was noted in the industrial sector, which grew by 1.6%. A slowdown in growth was observed in the mining industry from 1.2% to 0.5%. A decrease in comparison with last year is noted in the production of coal (-15%) and iron ores (-29.8%). The negative effect was offset by the extraction of non-ferrous metals (+7.6%) and other minerals (+12.9%). At the same time, crude oil and gas production remained at the level of last year, which, in our opinion, is due to the problems with the oil shipment to the CPC.
The growth of the Industrial Production Index was 2.5% in the manufacturing industry. The growth was thanks to the accelerated production of textiles (+54.1%), electrical equipment (+48.7%), light industry (+34.3), mechanical engineering (+31.5%) and beverages (+22.6%). The decrease occurred in metallurgical production (-11.3%) and tobacco production (-2.6%).
The cooling in the services sector was due to a slowdown in the growth rates of the main industries, which was expected after the “peak” values of January.
Thus, the growth in the communications market slowed from 18.1% to 12.0%, trade – from 19.4% to 11.5%, and transportation and warehousing industry – from 8.0% to 6.1%.
The communications industry is growing due to Internet services (+22.3%) and television (+16.5%), the development of which is supported by government programs and plans.
A decrease in growth rates was observed in retail and wholesale trade. At the same time, the main negative impact on retail continues to be food products, the decline of which has deepened to -5.5%, and this continues to happen due to a drop in real household incomes and a significant increase in prices. The wholesale segment demonstrates a more stable growth in sales of both food and non-food products.
In the transportation and warehousing industry, good rates were noted for passenger transportation (+19.0%) and passenger turnover (+33.8%). As a result, the revenues of enterprises from transportation amounted to 738.0 billion tenge.
Read more in the paper
Klara Seidakhmetova
Senior AnalystRelated News
09 October 23
How not to be unemployed: what you need to know about the future labour market
Experts of the World Economic Forum (WEF) presented new forecasts for business, professions and skills development in the next 5 years. The study is based on surveys of the largest employers and their expectations regarding business development, professions and skills. The survey involved 803 companies employing more than 11.3 million people, covering 27 industry clusters and 45 economies worldwide.
Key insights:
- Employers expect structural changes in 23% of jobs;
- The "green" economy is the main source of new jobs;
- Economic challenges are the greatest threat to the labour market;
- Advanced technologies will remain a key driver in business transformation;
- About 75% of the surveyed companies plan to implement AI by 2027;
- Up to 43% of all business tasks will be performed by machines in the coming 5 years;
- The most popular profession is artificial intelligence and machine learning specialists;
- Analytical thinking is a key skill for a successful career;
- 47% of the surveyed employers evaluate their skills when selecting candidates, and 45% require a diploma;
- In the next five years, 44% of the basic skills of employees will become obsolete and 6 out of 10 employees will have to undergo training.
Periodic Researches
Businesslabour marketAlexandra Molchanovskaya
06 September 23
Financial analytics: How much do we spend on routine expenditures?
We face a variety of expenses that vary depending on our needs, circumstances and preferences in our daily lives. Some people need quality food, others need to repay loans regularly and for some entertainment and recreation become a priority. However, the question often arises: Do we have enough income to meet all these needs? What amount of money is needed to achieve a comfortable standard of living? Is it possible to classify yourself as middle class by your expenses?
In this regard, we decided to analyze the core expenditures that each person or family needs to achieve a minimum level of comfort and meet basic life needs. As a result of the study, we divided the employees of Astana and Almaty cities into 6 groups depending on their income and expenses and also determined the size of each class: the least well-off, low-income, lower middle class, middle class, prosperous and well-off.
Key insights:
- An average of 246.3 thousand tenge or 60% of salary is spent on core expenditures every month.
- The largest amount of daily expenses is observed in the first 4 days after receiving a wage.
- At least 450 thousand tenge per month is required to satisfy all basic needs for a comfortable life in megapolicies.
- Almost half of the employed in Astana and Almaty cities (49%) do not have enough earnings to cover their daily expenses.
- The is an essential disparity between workers and cities - there are 4 times more workers with financial difficulties in Almaty than in the capital.
- Only 4.4% of employees with wages from 700 thousand to 1.2 million tenge, whose daily expenses account for 40-50% of income, can be attributed to the middle class.
- Employees with above-average incomes make up the smallest share of the employed population - 2%.
One-off Researches
ConsumptionStandard of livingAlexandra Molchanovskaya
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