Leading indicator of economy (8 months 2022)
According to the latest data, the growth of the short-term indicator is slowing down: from +6.5% at the end of the 1st quarter to +3.7% in 8 months).
The main sectors of the economy continue to grow compared to last year, but there is a slowdown in the largest ones – industry and trade in comparison with previous months.
In industry, mining which is the key sector harms the growth rate. This is due to the shutdown of oil production upon unscheduled repairs at Kashagan and planned ones at Tengiz, as well as due to constant interruptions in the operation of the largest pipeline of the Caspian Pipeline Consortium (CPC), through which most of the extracted oil is exported. However, if earlier the extraction of metal ores could partially offset the problems of the oil and gas sector, now certain problems are present here.
So, according to the latest data, ore mining is slowing down. Such stagnation, in our opinion, is associated with a significant decline in the supply of ferrous metals, iron ores and concentrates from Kazakhstan to Russia. Mining of iron ores fell by 15.5%.
The observed weakening of domestic trade growth from 6.2% to 5.2% is due to rising food prices (+20.8% YoY in August) and worsening inflation expectations. All this leads to the fact that people give much more money for products, respectively, their consumption begins to decrease.
Therefore, although food sales are growing in monetary terms, they are declining in physical volumes.
At the same time, in wholesale trade, on the contrary, there is an increase in sales of food products, which may indicate a reorientation of the trade market to the wholesale segment.
Read more in the paper
Klara Seidakhmetova
Senior AnalystRelated News
09 October 23
How not to be unemployed: what you need to know about the future labour market
Experts of the World Economic Forum (WEF) presented new forecasts for business, professions and skills development in the next 5 years. The study is based on surveys of the largest employers and their expectations regarding business development, professions and skills. The survey involved 803 companies employing more than 11.3 million people, covering 27 industry clusters and 45 economies worldwide.
Key insights:
- Employers expect structural changes in 23% of jobs;
- The "green" economy is the main source of new jobs;
- Economic challenges are the greatest threat to the labour market;
- Advanced technologies will remain a key driver in business transformation;
- About 75% of the surveyed companies plan to implement AI by 2027;
- Up to 43% of all business tasks will be performed by machines in the coming 5 years;
- The most popular profession is artificial intelligence and machine learning specialists;
- Analytical thinking is a key skill for a successful career;
- 47% of the surveyed employers evaluate their skills when selecting candidates, and 45% require a diploma;
- In the next five years, 44% of the basic skills of employees will become obsolete and 6 out of 10 employees will have to undergo training.
One-off Researches
Businesslabour marketAlexandra Molchanovskaya
06 September 23
Financial analytics: How much do we spend on routine expenditures?
We face a variety of expenses that vary depending on our needs, circumstances and preferences in our daily lives. Some people need quality food, others need to repay loans regularly and for some entertainment and recreation become a priority. However, the question often arises: Do we have enough income to meet all these needs? What amount of money is needed to achieve a comfortable standard of living? Is it possible to classify yourself as middle class by your expenses?
In this regard, we decided to analyze the core expenditures that each person or family needs to achieve a minimum level of comfort and meet basic life needs. As a result of the study, we divided the employees of Astana and Almaty cities into 6 groups depending on their income and expenses and also determined the size of each class: the least well-off, low-income, lower middle class, middle class, prosperous and well-off.
Key insights:
- An average of 246.3 thousand tenge or 60% of salary is spent on core expenditures every month.
- The largest amount of daily expenses is observed in the first 4 days after receiving a wage.
- At least 450 thousand tenge per month is required to satisfy all basic needs for a comfortable life in megapolicies.
- Almost half of the employed in Astana and Almaty cities (49%) do not have enough earnings to cover their daily expenses.
- The is an essential disparity between workers and cities - there are 4 times more workers with financial difficulties in Almaty than in the capital.
- Only 4.4% of employees with wages from 700 thousand to 1.2 million tenge, whose daily expenses account for 40-50% of income, can be attributed to the middle class.
- Employees with above-average incomes make up the smallest share of the employed population - 2%.
One-off Researches
Standard of livingConsumptionAlexandra Molchanovskaya
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