Leading indicator of economy (9 months 2022)
The growth of the short-term economic indicator continues to slow down from +3.7 in the first 8 months of 2022 to +3.5% for 9 months
A decrease in growth rates is observed in 4 out of 6 sectors of the economy: industry, construction, trade, transport and warehousing.
The slowdown affected manufacturing and mining in the industry sector. The latter remained at the level of last year due to problems in the oil and gas industry and metallurgy. Oil production declined due to repairs at Kashagan and Tengiz, while metal production sank due to problems with the supply of iron ores to Russia.
In our opinion, the slowdown in construction is due to the hikes for building materials, a decrease in investment in housing construction, and the completion of major government projects.
At the same time, the issues of the real sector also affect the service sector, where there is a decline in trade, transport and warehousing. The observed weakening of domestic trade growth from +5.2% to +4.3% is probably due to both rising food prices (+22.2% YoY in September) and the fading away of the positive shock of trade with the Russian Federation. Although food sales are growing in monetary terms, they are declining in physical volumes. And on the contrary, in wholesale trade there is an increase in sales of food products, which may indicate a reorientation of the trade market more to the wholesale segment.
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Klara Seidakhmetova
Senior AnalystRelated News
09 October 23
How not to be unemployed: what you need to know about the future labour market
Experts of the World Economic Forum (WEF) presented new forecasts for business, professions and skills development in the next 5 years. The study is based on surveys of the largest employers and their expectations regarding business development, professions and skills. The survey involved 803 companies employing more than 11.3 million people, covering 27 industry clusters and 45 economies worldwide.
Key insights:
- Employers expect structural changes in 23% of jobs;
- The "green" economy is the main source of new jobs;
- Economic challenges are the greatest threat to the labour market;
- Advanced technologies will remain a key driver in business transformation;
- About 75% of the surveyed companies plan to implement AI by 2027;
- Up to 43% of all business tasks will be performed by machines in the coming 5 years;
- The most popular profession is artificial intelligence and machine learning specialists;
- Analytical thinking is a key skill for a successful career;
- 47% of the surveyed employers evaluate their skills when selecting candidates, and 45% require a diploma;
- In the next five years, 44% of the basic skills of employees will become obsolete and 6 out of 10 employees will have to undergo training.
One-off Researches
Businesslabour marketAlexandra Molchanovskaya
06 September 23
Financial analytics: How much do we spend on routine expenditures?
We face a variety of expenses that vary depending on our needs, circumstances and preferences in our daily lives. Some people need quality food, others need to repay loans regularly and for some entertainment and recreation become a priority. However, the question often arises: Do we have enough income to meet all these needs? What amount of money is needed to achieve a comfortable standard of living? Is it possible to classify yourself as middle class by your expenses?
In this regard, we decided to analyze the core expenditures that each person or family needs to achieve a minimum level of comfort and meet basic life needs. As a result of the study, we divided the employees of Astana and Almaty cities into 6 groups depending on their income and expenses and also determined the size of each class: the least well-off, low-income, lower middle class, middle class, prosperous and well-off.
Key insights:
- An average of 246.3 thousand tenge or 60% of salary is spent on core expenditures every month.
- The largest amount of daily expenses is observed in the first 4 days after receiving a wage.
- At least 450 thousand tenge per month is required to satisfy all basic needs for a comfortable life in megapolicies.
- Almost half of the employed in Astana and Almaty cities (49%) do not have enough earnings to cover their daily expenses.
- The is an essential disparity between workers and cities - there are 4 times more workers with financial difficulties in Almaty than in the capital.
- Only 4.4% of employees with wages from 700 thousand to 1.2 million tenge, whose daily expenses account for 40-50% of income, can be attributed to the middle class.
- Employees with above-average incomes make up the smallest share of the employed population - 2%.
One-off Researches
Standard of livingConsumptionAlexandra Molchanovskaya
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