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Leading indicator of economy (results of 2022 and expectations for 2023)

The short-term economic indicator growth by the end of 2022 amounted to 3.5%. The growth rate of the short-term economic indicator showed good recovery dynamics in December (+5.1%).

Agriculture, construction and communications contributed the most to economic growth in 2022. At the same time, the industry sector had the most negative impact. Thus, there was some recovery in both the services and goods production sectors by the end of the year.

The agricultural sector grew by a record 9.1% hence one of the highest grain harvests in the last decade, which occurred by the increased state financing of harvesting operations and increased availability of agricultural machinery through leasing.

Despite the hike in prime cost, the construction industry showed an impressive increase by the end of the year and grew by 9.4%. Construction of residential buildings in 2022 increased by 13.7%, non-residential by 21.7% and structures by 9.7%. And we believe that this growth is due to the launch of major construction projects, the completion of repairs and prolonged financial promotion.

Industry became a struggling sector last year. Due to repairs at large deposits, multiple CPC shutdowns and a decrease in the supply of ferrous metals to Russia, the mining industry has been slowing down since April and decreased by 1% by the end of the year. Also during the year, oil production decreased by 1.9%, natural gas by 1%, iron ores by 20.6% and other minerals by 7.6%.

The slowing-down dynamics were noticed in the manufacturing industry, the growth rate of which decreased to 3.4% by the end of the year.

The cooling was observed in tobacco (from 9.8% according to data for 11 months to 7.9%), textile (from 8.1% to 5.3%), and metallurgical production (from 3.9% to 1.9%). In comparison with 2021, the production of furniture (-10.7%), pharmaceutical (-10.3%) and dairy (-7.1%) products also decreased.

In the service sector, good growth was seen in the communication market (+8.0%). This is due to the faster development of Internet services versus the slowdown of telephone services. Due to a cargo transportation drop of 2.8% and a slowdown in the growth rate of cargo turnover to 1.0%, the transport and warehousing industry has remained at the same level in recent months.

After slowing down in the summer-autumn period, trade continued its growth this month and grew by 5.0% at the end of the year. The growth rate of retail trade was 2.1%, and wholesale – 6.3%. The past year has changed trends within the industry under price pressure in the economy, where there was not only a reorientation of the food market to the wholesale segment but a reduction in demand for them also. At the same time, the demand for non-food products was backed by many installment programs and the growth of retail lending.

Klara Seidakhmetova

Senior Analyst

09 October 23

300

How not to be unemployed: what you need to know about the future labour market

Experts of the World Economic Forum (WEF) presented new forecasts for business, professions and skills development in the next 5 years. The study is based on surveys of the largest employers and their expectations regarding business development, professions and skills. The survey involved 803 companies employing more than 11.3 million people, covering 27 industry clusters and 45 economies worldwide.

Key insights:

  • Employers expect structural changes in 23% of jobs;
  • The "green" economy is the main source of new jobs;
  • Economic challenges are the greatest threat to the labour market;
  • Advanced technologies will remain a key driver in business transformation;
  • About 75% of the surveyed companies plan to implement AI by 2027;
  • Up to 43% of all business tasks will be performed by machines in the coming 5 years;
  • The most popular profession is artificial intelligence and machine learning specialists;
  • Analytical thinking is a key skill for a successful career;
  • 47% of the surveyed employers evaluate their skills when selecting candidates, and 45% require a diploma;
  • In the next five years, 44% of the basic skills of employees will become obsolete and 6 out of 10 employees will have to undergo training.

One-off Researches


Businesslabour marketAlexandra Molchanovskaya

06 September 23

1542

Financial analytics: How much do we spend on routine expenditures?

We face a variety of expenses that vary depending on our needs, circumstances and preferences in our daily lives. Some people need quality food, others need to repay loans regularly and for some entertainment and recreation become a priority. However, the question often arises: Do we have enough income to meet all these needs? What amount of money is needed to achieve a comfortable standard of living? Is it possible to classify yourself as middle class by your expenses? 

In this regard, we decided to analyze the core expenditures that each person or family needs to achieve a minimum level of comfort and meet basic life needs. As a result of the study, we divided the employees of Astana and Almaty cities into 6 groups depending on their income and expenses and also determined the size of each class: the least well-off, low-income, lower middle class, middle class, prosperous and well-off. 

Key insights:

  • An average of 246.3 thousand tenge or 60% of salary is spent on core expenditures every month.
  • The largest amount of daily expenses is observed in the first 4 days after receiving a wage.
  • At least 450 thousand tenge per month is required to satisfy all basic needs for a comfortable life in megapolicies.
  • Almost half of the employed in Astana and Almaty cities (49%) do not have enough earnings to cover their daily expenses.
  • The is an essential disparity between workers and cities - there are 4 times more workers with financial difficulties in Almaty than in the capital.
  • Only 4.4% of employees with wages from 700 thousand to 1.2 million tenge, whose daily expenses account for 40-50% of income, can be attributed to the middle class.
  • Employees with above-average incomes make up the smallest share of the employed population - 2%. 

One-off Researches


Standard of livingConsumptionAlexandra Molchanovskaya

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