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Leading indicator of economy (January 2023)

The Short-term Economic Indicator showed solid growth and amounted to 5.0% in the first month of 2023.

Such accelerated development was provided by the growth of the real sector (+2.3%) and the service sector (+7.6%). Positive dynamics were observed in all major sectors of the economy, while the main contribution to its growth was made by the service industries: wholesale and retail trades, as well as the communications industry. If we consider the real sector, then the greatest growth was observed in construction.

According to data for January 2022, industry grew by 1.4%. The mining industry moved into the growth zone and amounted to 1.2% (7.2% in January 2022) for the first time since October last year. This growth was provided by the production of oil (+1%), non-ferrous metals (+9.1%) and other minerals (+7.6%). However, there was a decrease in coal and iron ore production continued compared to last year.

The Gross Value Added of the manufacturing sector increased by 1.6% as a result of an increase in the production of pharmaceutical products (+51%), food (+9.8%), beverages (+33.2%), textiles (+25.5%), tobacco products (+21.3%), and mechanical engineering (+12.1%). At the same time, there is a decrease in clothing (-13.8%) and metallurgical production (-7.4%).

The construction industry showed an impressive increase of 12.5%. In January, the construction of residential buildings decreased by 31.5% compared to the same period last year, and, on the contrary, non-residential buildings increased by 39.1%, which blocked the negative impact of the housing part. Construction of structures increased by 14.4%. In our opinion, this was due to increased investment in fixed assets, delivery of construction projects and continued government support of the industry.

All major industries in the real sector showed good growth.

Thus, the growth in the communications market was +18.1%, and in trade +19.4%: the retail sector grew by 20.8%, and wholesale – by 18.8%.Such accelerated growth of industries is explained by the last year’s low base effect due to the January events. At the same time, the development of the communications industry is supported by the state through national projects to provide citizens with high-quality Internet, and the trade – by lending from banks.

According to the BNS, the methodology in the transportation and warehousing industry was revised, as a result of which in January there was an increase of 7.9% (according to the new methodology, last year the growth was +8.6%). The growth was provided by the acceleration of passenger turnover by 49.3% and the growth of passenger traffic by 32.5%. The revenues of enterprises from transportation in the first month of this year amounted to 371.5 billion tenge.

Klara Seidakhmetova

Senior Analyst

09 October 23

362

How not to be unemployed: what you need to know about the future labour market

Experts of the World Economic Forum (WEF) presented new forecasts for business, professions and skills development in the next 5 years. The study is based on surveys of the largest employers and their expectations regarding business development, professions and skills. The survey involved 803 companies employing more than 11.3 million people, covering 27 industry clusters and 45 economies worldwide.

Key insights:

  • Employers expect structural changes in 23% of jobs;
  • The "green" economy is the main source of new jobs;
  • Economic challenges are the greatest threat to the labour market;
  • Advanced technologies will remain a key driver in business transformation;
  • About 75% of the surveyed companies plan to implement AI by 2027;
  • Up to 43% of all business tasks will be performed by machines in the coming 5 years;
  • The most popular profession is artificial intelligence and machine learning specialists;
  • Analytical thinking is a key skill for a successful career;
  • 47% of the surveyed employers evaluate their skills when selecting candidates, and 45% require a diploma;
  • In the next five years, 44% of the basic skills of employees will become obsolete and 6 out of 10 employees will have to undergo training.

One-off Researches


Businesslabour marketAlexandra Molchanovskaya

06 September 23

1683

Financial analytics: How much do we spend on routine expenditures?

We face a variety of expenses that vary depending on our needs, circumstances and preferences in our daily lives. Some people need quality food, others need to repay loans regularly and for some entertainment and recreation become a priority. However, the question often arises: Do we have enough income to meet all these needs? What amount of money is needed to achieve a comfortable standard of living? Is it possible to classify yourself as middle class by your expenses? 

In this regard, we decided to analyze the core expenditures that each person or family needs to achieve a minimum level of comfort and meet basic life needs. As a result of the study, we divided the employees of Astana and Almaty cities into 6 groups depending on their income and expenses and also determined the size of each class: the least well-off, low-income, lower middle class, middle class, prosperous and well-off. 

Key insights:

  • An average of 246.3 thousand tenge or 60% of salary is spent on core expenditures every month.
  • The largest amount of daily expenses is observed in the first 4 days after receiving a wage.
  • At least 450 thousand tenge per month is required to satisfy all basic needs for a comfortable life in megapolicies.
  • Almost half of the employed in Astana and Almaty cities (49%) do not have enough earnings to cover their daily expenses.
  • The is an essential disparity between workers and cities - there are 4 times more workers with financial difficulties in Almaty than in the capital.
  • Only 4.4% of employees with wages from 700 thousand to 1.2 million tenge, whose daily expenses account for 40-50% of income, can be attributed to the middle class.
  • Employees with above-average incomes make up the smallest share of the employed population - 2%. 

One-off Researches


Standard of livingConsumptionAlexandra Molchanovskaya

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