Dashboard for assessing current economic activity (12/02/2022)
According to the dashboard results for November, 20 out of 30 factors indicate an overheating of the economy. The analysis was carried out in 4 blocks: inflation, monetary, economic and external terms. A semantic analysis of the National Bank of the Republic of Kazakhstan press release was also carried out.
1 indicator in the inflation block has moved into the overheating zone in comparison with the previous dashboard. The increase in price factors overheating is getting worse, while business activity and economic growth, on the contrary, show cooling. Increasing stagflation risks are likely to be a factor in maintaining budget spending at elevated levels. In these circumstances, an excessive increase in interest rates may contribute to an additional expansion of the budget deficit, thereby complicating the ability to keep inflation under control. Given the growing risks regarding the prospects for the development of the domestic economy, the main issue in ensuring sustainable growth and stable inflation is a balanced approach to decision-making, as well as the consistency of budgetary and monetary policy measures.
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